St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers: St Patrick's Athletic to win
St Patrick's Athletic enter the clash with a 1.9 xG edge and a 49.3% win probability, while Shamrock Rovers sit at 1.4 xG and 28.4% in the model. The numbers point to a home side advantage in what promises to be a tight encounter.
Both teams have been erratic in their last five league outings – St Patrick's have recorded two draws, two wins and a loss, whereas Rovers have managed just one win amid three draws and a defeat. The recent form suggests a game where the home side will be looking to capitalise on its better scoring record.
Hamish's Verdict
The model gives St Patrick's a 49.3% chance of victory versus 28.4% for the visitors, underpinned by a superior expected‑goals figure of 1.9 to 1.4.
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With St Patrick's Athl. averaging 1.9 expected goals and Shamrock Rovers averaging 1.4, the model gives a 64.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 35.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.3 (St Patrick's Athl. 1.9 + Shamrock Rovers 1.4) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 64.0% chance against 36.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has St Patrick's Athl. at 49.3%, the draw at 22.3%, and Shamrock Rovers at 28.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
St Patrick's Athl.
St Patrick's recent form includes a 1-1 draw with Dundalk at home and a 2-1 away win over Shelbourne, showing they can both hold and break down opponents. Their latest win 2-0 at Drogheda United (away) and the subsequent 0-2 loss to Waterford at home underline a tendency to score but also occasional defensive lapses, reinforcing a home win probability that exceeds the draw likelihood.
Shamrock Rovers
Shamrock Rovers have a win to their name – a 3-2 home triumph over Dundalk – but have also drawn three times (0-0 at Drogheda, 3-3 at Derry City, 0-0 at Shelbourne). The mix of a high‑scoring win and multiple low‑scoring draws indicates they can find the net but often struggle to clinch victories, supporting a lower win chance for them on the road.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Rovers have three wins (1-0, 0-1, 2-0) and St Patrick's have two (3-2, 1-0), so the head‑to‑head record is slightly in favour of the visitors but remains close, leaving the home advantage as the decisive factor.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 16 Aug 2026 | St Patrick's Athl. 3-2 Shamrock Rovers | FAI Cup |
| 29 May 2026 | Shamrock Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| 10 Apr 2026 | St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |
| 20 Feb 2026 | Shamrock Rovers 2-0 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| 17 Oct 2025 | St Patrick's Athl. 1-0 Shamrock Rovers | Premier Division |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was St Patrick's Athletic to win.
What was the final score of St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Shamrock Rovers (full time).
When was St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. played Shamrock Rovers on Fri 11 Sep · 20:00 BST in the League of Ireland at Richmond Park.
More League of Ireland This Week
See all League of Ireland fixtures →With the home side’s scoring edge and a higher win probability, the logical conclusion is to back St Patrick's Athletic to take all three points.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
