St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford: St Patrick's Athl. Draw No Bet
St Patrick's Athl. boast a 2.1 expected‑goals per game rating while Waterford sit at 1.3. The model backs St Patrick's with a 55.8% win chance and a 76.7% draw‑no‑bet probability.
Both sides come into the fixture with contrasting recent runs – St Patrick's have turned a string of draws into back‑to‑back away wins, whereas Waterford have mixed a win‑heavy spell with a recent draw. The clash pits a home side that concedes barely once every two games against a visitor that leaks over two goals per match on the road.
Hamish's Verdict
The model gives St Patrick's a 76.7% chance to either win or draw, far outweighing Waterford’s 23.3% chance to win outright.
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With St Patrick's Athl. averaging 2.1 expected goals and Waterford averaging 1.3, the model gives a 63.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 36.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.4 (St Patrick's Athl. 2.1 + Waterford 1.3) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 66.0% chance against 34.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has St Patrick's Athl. at 55.8%, the draw at 20.9%, and Waterford at 23.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-1 at 9.6% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
St Patrick's Athl.
St Patrick's recent form of DDDWW includes a 2‑1 away win over Shelbourne and a 2‑0 away win against Drogheda United, showing they can convert chances into goals on the road. The three consecutive draws earlier in the run indicate a period of tight games, but the two wins have pushed their win probability up, reinforcing confidence in their ability to secure at least a point here.
Waterford
Waterford’s DDWWD sequence features a 1‑0 home win over Shelbourne and a dominant 3‑1 home victory against Bohemians, proving they can score when in front. However, the surrounding draws and a recent 0‑0 away stalemate against Sligo Rovers highlight a tendency to struggle for goals on the road, which weakens their case for a win in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings St Patrick's have won three times and drawn twice, with the most recent 1‑1 draw confirming that Waterford can earn points but not break the home side’s edge.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 10 Jul 2026 | Waterford 1-1 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| 8 May 2026 | St Patrick's Athl. 4-1 Waterford | Premier Division |
| 20 Mar 2026 | Waterford 0-2 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
| 24 Oct 2025 | St Patrick's Athl. 1-1 Waterford | Premier Division |
| 3 Aug 2025 | Waterford 0-2 St Patrick's Athl. | Premier Division |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Waterford won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was St Patrick's Athl. Draw No Bet.
What was the final score of St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
St Patrick's Athl. 0-2 Waterford (full time).
When was St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
St Patrick's Athl. played Waterford on Fri 28 Aug · 19:45 BST in the League of Ireland at Richmond Park.
More League of Ireland This Week
See all League of Ireland fixtures →These statistical differentials translate into a strong case for St Patrick's to avoid defeat outright, making a draw‑no‑bet the most logical selection.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
