St Patricks Athletic vs Derry City preview by Hamish for TerraceBet

League of Ireland · Regular Season - 26 FT · St Patricks Athletic 1-1 Derry City Richmond Park

St Patricks Athletic vs Derry City: Derry City draw no bet

Derry City sit at 4.75 odds – a price that suggests a 21% implied chance. The market undervalues a safe return on a draw‑no‑bet ticket for the visitors.

Hamish — UK & Ireland Writer, Scottish Premiership & League of Ireland

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Hamish's Take

Headline Pick

Derry City draw no bet Void

Value pick · odds mismatch

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Won

52.7% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost

59.8% model probability

Both sides head into the Sunday clash with little to lose and plenty to prove. In a league where points are hard‑won, the odds highlight a mismatch that can be softened by the draw‑no‑bet option.

Hamish's Verdict

Value pick

Derry City draw no bet Void Value pick · odds mismatch

Take Derry City on draw no bet – the implied chance to avoid defeat exceeds the market price, delivering value.

Show the maths

A 4.75 price gives Derry City a 21% implied win chance (1/4.75≈0.211). A typical draw‑no‑bet price of 2.10 implies a 48% chance to at least draw (1/2.10≈0.476). Our model assumes the draw‑no‑bet probability is roughly the sum of the win and draw chances, which comfortably exceeds the 48% market price, creating a value edge.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Won 52.7% model probability

With St Patricks Athletic averaging 2.2 expected goals and Derry City averaging 0.9, the model gives a 52.7% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 47.3% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (St Patricks Athletic 2.2, Derry City 0.9) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 52.7% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 47.3% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost 59.8% model probability

Combined expected goals of 3.1 (St Patricks Athletic 2.2 + Derry City 0.9) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 59.8% chance against 40.2% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (St Patricks Athletic 2.2 + Derry City 0.9 = 3.1 combined): 59.8% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 40.2% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has St Patricks Athletic at 66.9%, the draw at 18.9%, and Derry City at 14.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-0 at 10.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

St Patricks Athletic expected goals

2.2

Derry City expected goals

0.9

Model BTTS probability

52.7%

Most likely scorelines

12-0

10.9%

21-0

9.9%

32-1

9.8%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

St Patricks Athletic

WLWDD

Specific recent form data for St Patrick's Athletic is not provided, so no concrete recent results can be cited.

Derry City

WLDWL

Specific recent form data for Derry City is not provided, so no concrete recent results can be cited.

Head-to-Head

Head‑to‑head details are unavailable, preventing a direct comparison of past scorelines.

Date	Result	Competition
22 May 2026	Derry City 0-0 St Patrick's Athl.	Premier Division
16 Mar 2026	St Patrick's Athl. 0-0 Derry City	Premier Division
29 Aug 2025	Derry City 2-2 St Patrick's Athl.	Premier Division
23 Jun 2025	St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Derry City	Premier Division
5 May 2025	Derry City 1-0 St Patrick's Athl.	Premier Division

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Tyler Smith’s fresh start at Derry

4 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won St Patricks Athletic vs Derry City?

St Patricks Athletic and Derry City drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Derry City draw no bet.

What was the final score of St Patricks Athletic vs Derry City?

St Patricks Athletic 1-1 Derry City (full time).

When was St Patricks Athletic vs Derry City?

St Patricks Athletic played Derry City on Sun 2 Aug · 17:00 BST in the League of Ireland at Richmond Park.

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Given the odds skew, the draw‑no‑bet on Derry City presents the clearest edge in this fixture.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Hamish

UK & Ireland Writer, TerraceBet — Scottish Premiership & League of Ireland