Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

FA Cup · Round of 16 FT · Stockton Town 2-2 Guiseley AFC TBC

Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC: Stockton Town to win

Stockton Town and Guiseley AFC meet in the FA Cup with identical expected goals of 1.35 each. The model sees a 54.9 % chance of both sides finding the net, but the match‑result odds are evenly split at 37.1 % for either side.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Stockton Town to win Lost

Lean · Equal odds

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Won

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

50.6% model probability

Both clubs have been evenly matched in recent cup action, each averaging just over a goal per game according to the season scoring rate. With no clear advantage in form or venue, the tie is poised to be decided by fine margins.

Robbo's Verdict

Lean

Stockton Town to win Lost Slight lean Lean · Equal odds

The model rates Stockton Town’s chance of victory at 37.1 %, matching Guiseley’s but marginally above the draw probability, making a home win the most straightforward selection.

Show the maths

The model assigns both teams an expected goal value of 1.35, which produces identical win probabilities of 37.1 % for each side. The draw probability is lower at 25.8 %, meaning a result is more likely than a stalemate. Among the top scorelines, a 1‑0 win for either side accounts for 9.1 % each, supporting the view that a narrow victory is plausible. Selecting Stockton Town leverages the home advantage implicit in the venue, albeit the edge is slim.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Won 54.9% model probability

With Stockton Town averaging 1.35 expected goals and Guiseley AFC averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Stockton Town 1.35, Guiseley AFC 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Stockton Town 1.35 + Guiseley AFC 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Stockton Town 1.35 + Guiseley AFC 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Stockton Town at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Guiseley AFC at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Stockton Town expected goals

1.35

Guiseley AFC expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Head-to-Head

In the last five meetings, Stockton Town have won two (2‑0 on 2025‑09‑16 and 1‑0 on 2025‑04‑29) while Guiseley have secured one (3‑0 on 2026‑08‑25) and two matches ended 1‑1, suggesting a slight edge for Stockton Town in recent direct contests.

Date	Result	Competition
25 Aug 2026	Guiseley AFC 3-0 Stockton Town	Non League Premier - Northern
24 Jan 2026	Guiseley AFC 1-1 Stockton Town	Non League Premier - Northern
16 Sep 2025	Stockton Town 2-0 Guiseley AFC	Non League Premier - Northern
29 Apr 2025	Stockton Town 1-0 Guiseley AFC	Non League Premier - Northern - Play-offs
21 Dec 2024	Guiseley AFC 1-1 Stockton Town	Non League Premier - Northern

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Guiseley’s Lions roar past Stockton

3 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC?

Stockton Town and Guiseley AFC drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was Stockton Town to win.

What was the final score of Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC?

Stockton Town 2-2 Guiseley AFC (full time).

When was Stockton Town vs Guiseley AFC?

Stockton Town played Guiseley AFC on Sat 5 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.

More FA Cup This Week

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Given the equal probabilities, the safest edge lies in backing the team with the slightest statistical edge in recent head‑to‑head meetings.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups