Swindon Supermarine vs Weymouth: Swindon Supermarine to win
Swindon Supermarine enter the FA Cup tie with a 58.1% win probability and an 87.1% chance of over 2.5 goals, reflecting their 3.0 expected goals versus Weymouth's 2.0.
Both clubs come into the match after contrasting league runs – Swindon Supermarine have drawn and then won their last two fixtures, while Weymouth sit on a solitary victory. The cup meeting pits a side that scores three per game at home against a defensively solid away outfit that has yet to concede.
Robbo's Verdict
With a 58.1% win probability and a goal‑rich profile (3.0 xG at home), Swindon are the clear favorites to secure the three points.
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With Swindon Supermarine averaging 3.0 expected goals and Weymouth averaging 2.0, the model gives a 81.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 18.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 5.0 (Swindon Supermarine 3.0 + Weymouth 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 87.1% chance against 12.9% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Swindon Supermarine at 58.1%, the draw at 16.8%, and Weymouth at 24.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-1 at 6.1% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Swindon Supermarine
Swindon Supermarine’s recent form shows a 0-0 draw away to Winslow United followed by a 3-1 home win over the same opponents. The clean sheet in the draw and the three‑goal haul in the win demonstrate both defensive solidity and attacking potency, underpinning the model’s confidence in a home win.
Weymouth
Weymouth have opened their recent run with a 2-0 away victory against Bath City, indicating a capacity to score and keep a clean sheet on the road. This single win, combined with their overall ‘W’ form tag, suggests they can threaten but lack the consistency to overturn Swindon’s advantage.
Head-to-Head
The only recent head‑to‑head meeting on 22 July 2023 ended 1-2 in favour of Weymouth, showing that Weymouth can win away, yet the model still favours Swindon given the broader statistical picture.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Jul 2023 | Swindon Supermarine 1-2 Weymouth | Friendlies Clubs |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Swindon Supermarine vs Weymouth?
Weymouth won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Swindon Supermarine to win.
What was the final score of Swindon Supermarine vs Weymouth?
Swindon Supermarine 1-3 Weymouth (full time).
When was Swindon Supermarine vs Weymouth?
Swindon Supermarine played Weymouth on Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →The numbers point to a high‑scoring encounter dominated by the home side, making a Swindon Supermarine win the most compelling single‑market bet.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
