Tiverton Town vs Sholing: Tiverton Town to win
Tiverton Town and Sholing arrive with identical expected goal rates of 1.35, but the model splits the win odds evenly at 37.1% each while favouring a draw at just 25.8%. The numbers point to a tightly contested cup tie where a single goal could decide the outcome.
Both clubs enter the FA Cup with a solitary recent league win, and each has a lone recent result to show – Tiverton Town edged St. Blazey 2‑1 away, while Sholing dispatched Andover New Street 2‑0 at home. With little momentum to build on, the tie hinges on who can translate their season‑long scoring rate into a decisive strike.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns Tiverton Town a 37.1% chance of victory, equal to Sholing but higher than the 25.8% draw probability, indicating a modest edge for the home side.
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With Tiverton Town averaging 1.35 expected goals and Sholing averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Tiverton Town 1.35 + Sholing 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Tiverton Town at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Sholing at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Tiverton Town
Tiverton Town’s recent league form is a lone win, a 2‑1 victory at St. Blazey (A) that demonstrated their capacity to score and concede. That result, combined with an overall 1.35 xG, suggests they can produce the goal needed to edge a tight cup tie, supporting a narrow win pick.
Sholing
Sholing’s recent league form also consists of a single win, a 2‑0 home triumph over Andover New Street (H) where they kept a clean sheet. While the shut‑out shows defensive solidity, the identical 1.35 expected goals indicates they lack a clear scoring superiority, meaning the home side’s edge remains marginal.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, four ended with a one‑goal margin – Sholing 2‑1 Tiverton Town (2026-04-03), Tiverton Town 0‑1 Sholing (2025-08-23), Sholing 1‑0 Tiverton Town (2025-02-01), and Tiverton Town 1‑0 Sholing (2024-04-27) – plus a 3‑3 draw (2024-10-19). The prevalence of one‑goal results backs the expectation of a narrow win rather than a high‑scoring draw.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Apr 2026 | Sholing 2-1 Tiverton Town | Non League Premier - Southern South |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Tiverton Town 0-1 Sholing | Non League Premier - Southern South |
| 1 Feb 2025 | Sholing 1-0 Tiverton Town | Non League Premier - Southern South |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Tiverton Town 3-3 Sholing | Non League Premier - Southern South |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Tiverton Town 1-0 Sholing | Non League Premier - Southern South |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Tiverton Town vs Sholing?
Sholing won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Tiverton Town to win.
What was the final score of Tiverton Town vs Sholing?
Tiverton Town 0-1 Sholing (full time).
When was Tiverton Town vs Sholing?
Tiverton Town played Sholing on Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →Given the equal win probabilities and the model’s slight preference for a draw, the safest bet is to back Tiverton Town to clinch a narrow victory, betting on their ability to snatch a single goal advantage.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
