Toluca vs FC Juarez: Toluca to win
Toluca's 2.0 expected goals face Juarez's 0.5, and the model assigns a 73.1% chance of a Toluca victory.
Toluca host a struggling FC Juarez in what should be a one‑sided affair, with the home side boasting a strong attacking record and the visitors reeling from a five‑match losing streak.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model’s 73.1% win probability and the stark xG differential make a Toluca victory the overwhelmingly likely outcome.
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With Toluca averaging 2.0 expected goals and FC Juarez averaging 0.5, the model gives a 66.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 34.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Toluca 2.0 + FC Juarez 0.5) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Toluca at 73.1%, the draw at 18.7%, and FC Juarez at 8.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 16.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Toluca
Toluca’s recent run of WLWDW includes a 2‑0 away win over Guadalajara Chivas and a 3‑1 home victory against Necaxa, showing they can score and hold leads. Their most recent draw 0‑0 at Atlante confirms defensive solidity, reinforcing the expectation of a win here.
FC Juarez
Juarez have lost five straight, highlighted by a 1‑5 home loss to Pumas and a 1‑6 away defeat to Monterrey, indicating defensive frailty and a lack of offensive firepower. The lone goal against Club America (1‑2) did not alter the trend of conceding heavily, supporting a low win probability for Juarez.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Toluca have won four, including a 3‑1 win on 8 Mar 2026, confirming the historical dominance that aligns with the model’s win forecast.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2026 | Toluca 3-1 FC Juarez | Liga MX |
| 30 Nov 2025 | Toluca 0-0 FC Juarez | Liga MX |
| 27 Nov 2025 | FC Juarez 1-2 Toluca | Liga MX |
| 12 Aug 2025 | FC Juarez 0-2 Toluca | Liga MX |
| 22 Feb 2025 | FC Juarez 0-4 Toluca | Liga MX |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Toluca vs FC Juarez?
Toluca won 4-0. Our pre-match pick was Toluca to win.
What was the final score of Toluca vs FC Juarez?
Toluca 4-0 FC Juarez (full time).
When was Toluca vs FC Juarez?
Toluca played FC Juarez on Mon 31 Aug · 01:00 BST in the Liga MX at TBC.
More Liga MX This Week
See all Liga MX fixtures →All indicators point to a clear home win, making the Toluca‑to‑win market the most logical pick.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
