Toulouse vs Le Havre: Under 2.5 goals
Toulouse's 1.35 xG meets a leaky home defence, while Le Havre's 1.0 away xG pairs with a modest defensive record. The model leans toward fewer than 2.5 goals in this Ligue 1 clash.
Both sides arrive with shaky recent form – Toulouse have failed to win in five league games, and Le Havre have not secured a victory in their last four. Their defensive frailties and low scoring rates set the stage for a tight encounter.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns a 58.3% chance of the total remaining below 2.5, reflecting the teams’ low xG and defensive records.
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With Toulouse averaging 1.35 expected goals and Le Havre averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Toulouse 1.35 + Le Havre 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Toulouse at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and Le Havre at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Toulouse
Toulouse’s five‑game stretch reads D‑L‑D‑L‑D, highlighted by a 0‑2 loss to Lyon at home and a 0‑1 defeat at Lille. Those two defeats without scoring illustrate a lack of offensive output, reinforcing the expectation of few goals in this match.
Le Havre
Le Havre’s recent four games are L‑D‑L‑D, including a 0‑1 loss to Monaco at home and a 1‑2 defeat to Brest. Only one goal was scored across the three losses, indicating limited firepower that aligns with an under‑2.5‑goals result.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, each side has two wins and there is one draw (0‑0 in 2025). The split record shows no clear dominance, supporting a low‑scoring, balanced encounter.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 15 Feb 2026 | Le Havre 2-1 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2 Nov 2025 | Toulouse 0-0 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 23 Feb 2025 | Le Havre 1-4 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 15 Sep 2024 | Toulouse 2-0 Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 10 Mar 2024 | Le Havre 1-0 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
Team News (Pregame)
Toulouse: A. Donnum (Personal Reasons), A. Francis (Muscle Injury), R. Nicolaisen (Inactive), G. Restes (Injury)
Le Havre: P. Argney (Injury), F. Mambimbi (Injury), L. Mpasi-Nzau (Injury), J. Mwanga (Red Card)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Toulouse won 3-2. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Toulouse 3-2 Le Havre (full time).
When was Toulouse vs Le Havre?
Toulouse played Le Havre on Sat 19 Sep · 19:45 BST in the Ligue 1 at Stadium Municipal.
More Ligue 1 This Week
See all Ligue 1 fixtures →With both teams struggling to find the net and defenses holding steady, the probability of the match staying under the 2.5‑goal line is the most decisive signal from the model.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
