Trabzonspor vs Ferencvarosi TC: Ferencvarosi to win
Ferencvarosi TC enter as clear favourites with a 45.8% win probability and a 1.7 expected‑goals edge, while Trabzonspor struggle to generate chances at home.
The clash pits a side that has scored 1.7 goals per game on the road against a host whose home scoring rate sits at zero, setting up a direct test of attacking efficiency.
Robbo's Verdict
Ferencvarosi's 45.8% win probability, superior expected goals and recent form combine to make an away victory the most likely outcome.
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With Trabzonspor averaging 1.35 expected goals and Ferencvarosi TC averaging 1.7, the model gives a 60.5% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 39.5% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.0 (Trabzonspor 1.35 + Ferencvarosi TC 1.7) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 58.8% chance against 41.2% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Trabzonspor at 30.6%, the draw at 23.7%, and Ferencvarosi TC at 45.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 10.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Head-to-Head
In the last two meetings, Ferencvarosi won 3‑2 in 2022 and lost 1‑0 in the other, giving them a recent win that aligns with the model's away‑win bias.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov 2022 | Trabzonspor 1-0 Ferencvarosi TC | UEFA Europa League |
| 8 Sep 2022 | Ferencvarosi TC 3-2 Trabzonspor | UEFA Europa League |
Team News (Pregame)
Trabzonspor: A. Batagov (Knee Injury), T. Jabol-Folcarelli (Knee Injury), O. Yokuslu (Inactive), G. Gurpuz (Inactive)
Ferencvarosi TC: No notable injury concerns on record.
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Trabzonspor vs Ferencvarosi TC?
Ferencvarosi TC won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Ferencvarosi to win.
What was the final score of Trabzonspor vs Ferencvarosi TC?
Trabzonspor 0-1 Ferencvarosi TC (full time).
When was Trabzonspor vs Ferencvarosi TC?
Trabzonspor played Ferencvarosi TC on Thu 20 Aug · 18:00 BST in the Europa League at Papara Park.
More Europa League This Week
See all Europa League fixtures →Given the clear statistical advantage and the head‑to‑head record, the model leans heavily toward an away win.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
