Tromso vs CFR 1907 Cluj: Tromso to win
Tromso's xG sits at 1.35 versus CFR Cluj's 1.0, and the model rates Tromso's win probability at 44.8 %. The data points to a clear advantage for the home side.
Both clubs enter this Conference League tie after a mixed run of results, but the recent 5‑0 away win for Tromso over CFR Cluj gives the hosts a tangible edge heading into the match.
Robbo's Verdict
The model's 44.8 % win probability and superior 1.35 xG make a Tromso victory the most probable outcome.
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With Tromso averaging 1.35 expected goals and CFR 1907 Cluj averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Tromso 1.35 + CFR 1907 Cluj 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Tromso at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and CFR 1907 Cluj at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Tromso
Tromso's recent league form includes a 5‑0 away win over CFR Cluj, the only listed result in the last five games. That dominant performance highlights their attacking potency and suggests they can replicate a strong showing at home.
CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR Cluj have drawn 1‑1 away at Alashkert, then beaten the same side 3‑0 at home, before suffering a 5‑0 home loss to Tromso. The mix of a solid win and a heavy defeat indicates inconsistency, which weakens their case for an away win here.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head meeting ended 5‑0 to Tromso on 6 August 2026, a result that aligns with the model's higher win probability for the hosts.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | CFR 1907 Cluj 0-5 Tromso | UEFA Europa Conference League |
Team News
Tromso: L. Cornic (Thigh Injury), V. Ekblom (Groin Injury), A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd (Red Card), J. Grundt (Foot Injury)
CFR 1907 Cluj: No notable injury concerns on record.
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Tromso vs CFR 1907 Cluj?
Tromso to win. The model's 44.8 % win probability and superior 1.35 xG make a Tromso victory the most probable outcome.
What does the model give Tromso vs CFR 1907 Cluj?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Tromso a 44.8% chance, the draw 27.5%, and CFR 1907 Cluj 27.7% to win.
When is Tromso vs CFR 1907 Cluj?
Tromso play CFR 1907 Cluj on Thu 13 Aug · 18:00 BST in the Conference League at Romssa Arena.
Are there any injury concerns for Tromso vs CFR 1907 Cluj?
Tromso: L. Cornic (Thigh Injury), V. Ekblom (Groin Injury), A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd (Red Card), J. Grundt (Foot Injury). CFR 1907 Cluj have no notable injury concerns on record. Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Conference League This Week
See all Conference League fixtures →With a higher xG, a superior win probability, and a recent dominant head‑to‑head result, Tromso are the logical choice for the match‑result pick.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
