Tromso vs CFR 1907 Cluj: Tromso to win
Tromso's xG sits at 1.35 versus CFR Cluj's 1.0, and the model rates Tromso's win probability at 44.8 %. The data points to a clear advantage for the home side.
Both clubs enter this Conference League tie after a mixed run of results, but the recent 5‑0 away win for Tromso over CFR Cluj gives the hosts a tangible edge heading into the match.
Robbo's Verdict
The model's 44.8 % win probability and superior 1.35 xG make a Tromso victory the most probable outcome.
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With Tromso averaging 1.35 expected goals and CFR 1907 Cluj averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Tromso 1.35 + CFR 1907 Cluj 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Tromso at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and CFR 1907 Cluj at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Tromso
Tromso's recent league form includes a 5‑0 away win over CFR Cluj, the only listed result in the last five games. That dominant performance highlights their attacking potency and suggests they can replicate a strong showing at home.
CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR Cluj have drawn 1‑1 away at Alashkert, then beaten the same side 3‑0 at home, before suffering a 5‑0 home loss to Tromso. The mix of a solid win and a heavy defeat indicates inconsistency, which weakens their case for an away win here.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head meeting ended 5‑0 to Tromso on 6 August 2026, a result that aligns with the model's higher win probability for the hosts.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2026 | CFR 1907 Cluj 0-5 Tromso | UEFA Europa Conference League |
Team News (Pregame)
Tromso: L. Cornic (Thigh Injury), V. Ekblom (Groin Injury), A. Thongla-Iad Warneryd (Red Card), J. Grundt (Foot Injury)
CFR 1907 Cluj: No notable injury concerns on record.
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Tromso vs CFR 1907 Cluj?
Tromso won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Tromso to win.
What was the final score of Tromso vs CFR 1907 Cluj?
Tromso 2-1 CFR 1907 Cluj (full time).
When was Tromso vs CFR 1907 Cluj?
Tromso played CFR 1907 Cluj on Thu 13 Aug · 18:00 BST in the Conference League at Romssa Arena.
More Conference League This Week
See all Conference League fixtures →With a higher xG, a superior win probability, and a recent dominant head‑to‑head result, Tromso are the logical choice for the match‑result pick.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
