Turku PS vs SJK: Turku PS to win
Turku PS boast a 1.6 xG advantage at home while SJK limp with only 0.8 xG on the road. The model puts Turku PS on the stronger side with a 56.4% win probability.
Both sides arrive with contrasting recent runs: Turku PS have been hard to stop, while SJK have struggled to find the net away from home. The clash pits Turku's home firepower against a SJK side that has failed to score in two of its last five away outings.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns Turku PS a 56.4% chance of victory, driven by their superior home expected goals and SJK’s weak away attack.
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With Turku PS averaging 1.6 expected goals and SJK averaging 0.8, the model gives a 56.1% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 43.9% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Turku PS 1.6 + SJK 0.8) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 57.0% chance against 43.0% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Turku PS at 56.4%, the draw at 25.0%, and SJK at 18.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 14.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Turku PS
Turku PS’s recent five-game stretch reads W‑D‑W‑D‑D, highlighted by a 3‑0 home win over Mariehamn and a 3‑1 away victory at VPS. The strong win margins, especially the three‑goal haul, underline their ability to find the net, reinforcing the expectation of a home win here.
SJK
SJK have compiled W‑D‑L‑L‑D in their last five, including a 0‑2 away loss to Mariehamn and a 1‑2 home defeat to Lahti. The two consecutive defeats without scoring expose their offensive struggles, which aligns with the low probability of an away win in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Head‑to‑head shows mixed results, with SJK beating Turku PS 3‑1 in July but Turku PS winning 2‑0 in April; the recent 3‑1 loss for Turku hints at volatility, yet the overall trend favours the home side’s current form.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2026 | SJK 3-1 Turku PS | Veikkausliiga |
| 18 Apr 2026 | Turku PS 2-0 SJK | Veikkausliiga |
| 7 Mar 2026 | SJK 1-1 Turku PS | Friendlies Clubs |
| 11 Mar 2023 | SJK 3-2 Turku PS | Friendlies Clubs |
| 31 Oct 2020 | Turku PS 1-0 SJK | Veikkausliiga |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Turku PS vs SJK?
Turku PS and SJK drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was Turku PS to win.
What was the final score of Turku PS vs SJK?
Turku PS 0-0 SJK (full time).
When was Turku PS vs SJK?
Turku PS played SJK on Tue 8 Sep · 16:00 BST in the Veikkausliiga at Veritas Stadion.
More Veikkausliiga This Week
See all Veikkausliiga fixtures →With the home side’s scoring edge and the away side’s defensive frailties, the model’s win probability for Turku PS stands out as the most decisive signal.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
