U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club Queretaro: Over 2.5 goals
Pumas' modest 1.35 xG meets Queretaro's 2.0 xG, and the model rates the game as a clear Over‑2.5‑goals affair.
Both sides arrive with recent momentum: Pumas have turned a two‑game slump into back‑to‑back wins, highlighted by a 5‑1 thrashing of Juarez, while Queretaro have collected three wins in five, including a 3‑2 victory over Tigres.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model assigns a 65% probability to the match producing more than 2.5 goals, reflecting Queretaro’s strong away attack and Pumas’ leaky defence.
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With U.N.A.M. - Pumas averaging 1.35 expected goals and Club Queretaro averaging 2.0, the model gives a 64.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 36.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.4 (U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1.35 + Club Queretaro 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 65.0% chance against 35.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 25.8%, the draw at 21.7%, and Club Queretaro at 52.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 9.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
Pumas have posted a DLLWW run: a 0‑0 draw at Cruz Azul, a 1‑2 loss to Cruz Azul, a 0‑3 defeat to Pachuca, then a 2‑1 win at Toluca and a 5‑1 victory over Juarez. The recent two wins, especially the five‑goal outburst, show an upward trend that supports a higher goal tally in this fixture.
Club Queretaro
Queretaro’s DWLWW sequence includes a 1‑1 draw with Cruz Azul, a 2‑1 win at Puebla, a 0‑1 loss to Club America, followed by 2‑1 away at Pachuca and a 3‑2 home win over Tigres. Scoring in four of the last five matches demonstrates their consistent goal threat heading into this game.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings the teams have split two draws (both 1‑1) and two high‑scoring games (3‑2 and 2‑0), indicating a propensity for goals that backs the over‑2.5 outlook.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Jan 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1-1 Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
| 26 Jul 2025 | Club Queretaro 0-2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
| 19 Jan 2025 | Club Queretaro 3-2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
| 6 Nov 2024 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas 2-0 Club Queretaro | Liga MX |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Club Queretaro 1-1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club Queretaro?
U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Club Queretaro drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club Queretaro?
U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0-0 Club Queretaro (full time).
When was U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Club Queretaro?
U.N.A.M. - Pumas played Club Queretaro on Sun 16 Aug · 19:00 BST in the Liga MX at TBC.
More Liga MX This Week
See all Liga MX fixtures →With both teams primed to find the net and the model backing a high‑scoring outcome, the Over‑2.5‑goals market stands out as the most decisive read.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
