Udinese vs Como preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

Serie A · Regular Season - 1 FT · Udinese 1-1 Como Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli

Udinese vs Como: Both teams to score - Yes

Udinese and Como both sit on a 1.35 expected‑goals mark, but their recent form and head‑to‑head suggest an open game where both sides are likely to find the net.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Both teams to score - Yes Won

Solid · BTTS likelihood

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Won

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost

50.6% model probability

Udinese arrive at the Stadio Friuli with two consecutive 0‑1 defeats, while Como have turned their recent run into three wins and a draw, showing a surge in confidence despite playing away.

Robbo's Verdict

Solid

Both teams to score - Yes Won Solid lean Solid · BTTS likelihood

The model assigns a 54.9 % chance that both Udinese and Como will score, the strongest single‑market edge across the available options.

Show the maths

The model gives Udinese and Como identical expected‑goals of 1.35, indicating roughly equal attacking output. Converting those xG figures into match probabilities yields a 54.9 % chance of both sides scoring, comfortably above the 50 % threshold. The BTTS probability outstrips the draw (25.8 %) and the even match‑result split (37.1 % each), showing the model’s confidence that goals will come from both ends. Hence the pick follows directly from the BTTS odds.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Won 54.9% model probability

With Udinese averaging 1.35 expected goals and Como averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Udinese 1.35, Como 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Udinese 1.35 + Como 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Udinese 1.35 + Como 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Udinese at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Como at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Udinese expected goals

1.35

Como expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

Udinese

Udinese’s last five league results include a 0‑1 loss at home to Cremonese and a 0‑1 defeat away at Napoli, giving them two straight defeats. Those narrow margins suggest they have struggled to break through defensively, which underlines the need for a goal from either side to avoid a third loss.

Como

DWWW

Como’s recent form features a 0‑0 draw at home to Napoli and three consecutive wins – 1‑0 at Hellas Verona (away), 1‑0 versus Parma (home) and a 4‑1 triumph at Cremonese (away). Scoring in each of those victories shows a clear ability to find the net on the road, supporting the notion they will score again.

Head-to-Head

In the last four meetings Udinese have kept a clean sheet once (0‑0) while conceding once (1‑0) and suffering a heavy 4‑1 loss, indicating both sides have been capable of scoring, which aligns with the BTTS outlook.

Date	Result	Competition
6 Apr 2026	Udinese 0-0 Como	Serie A
3 Jan 2026	Como 1-0 Udinese	Serie A
20 Jan 2025	Como 4-1 Udinese	Serie A
1 Sep 2024	Udinese 1-0 Como	Serie A

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Como’s fresh away kit unveiled

3 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Udinese vs Como?

Udinese and Como drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.

What was the final score of Udinese vs Como?

Udinese 1-1 Como (full time).

When was Udinese vs Como?

Udinese played Como on Sat 22 Aug · 17:30 BST in the Serie A at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.

More Serie A This Week

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With Udinese needing to reverse a two‑game losing streak and Como riding a three‑game winning run, both sides are poised to push forward, making a goal for each side the most probable outcome.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups