Union Santa Fe vs Independiente: Union Santa Fe to win
Union Santa Fe sit on a 1.8 xG average at home while Independiente manage 1.2 on the road. The model gives the hosts a 51.4% chance of victory, the clearest edge of the match‑result probabilities.
Both sides enter the clash with contrasting recent runs – Santa Fe have been prolific in attack but vulnerable to a single slip, whereas Independiente have mixed results and a leaky defense away from home.
Bez's Verdict
The home side’s superior xG and a 51.4% win probability make them the clear favorite.
Show the maths
With Union Santa Fe averaging 1.8 expected goals and Independiente averaging 1.2, the model gives a 58.3% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 41.7% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 3.0 (Union Santa Fe 1.8 + Independiente 1.2) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 57.7% chance against 42.3% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Union Santa Fe at 51.4%, the draw at 23.1%, and Independiente at 25.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 10.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Union Santa Fe
Union Santa Fe’s last five league results are L‑W‑W‑W‑L. The 3‑1 win at Aldosivi (A) and the 4‑1 victory over Sarmiento Junín (H) demonstrate a potent attack, but the 1‑2 loss at Talleres Córdoba (A) shows a susceptibility to conceding. This blend of high scoring and occasional lapses supports a win probability higher than a draw.
Independiente
Independiente’s recent form reads W‑D‑L‑W‑D. A 3‑1 away win against Lanús (A) shows they can score, yet the 0‑3 home defeat to Gimnasia M. (H) exposes defensive weakness, and the 1‑1 draw with San Lorenzo (H) indicates they often settle for a point. These mixed results keep their win odds lower than Santa Fe’s.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Independiente have won three, drawn one and lost one, including a 4‑4 thriller in March 2026 and a 3‑0 win in November 2024. The head‑to‑head record leans toward Independiente, but the home advantage and higher xG tilt the balance toward Santa Fe this time.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 May 2026 | Union Santa Fe 0-2 Independiente | Copa Argentina |
| 10 Mar 2026 | Independiente 4-4 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 6 Nov 2024 | Independiente 3-0 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 24 Jun 2023 | Union Santa Fe 3-0 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 19 Sep 2022 | Union Santa Fe 0-1 Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Union Santa Fe vs Independiente?
Independiente won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Union Santa Fe to win.
What was the final score of Union Santa Fe vs Independiente?
Union Santa Fe 1-2 Independiente (full time).
When was Union Santa Fe vs Independiente?
Union Santa Fe played Independiente on Sat 19 Sep · 20:45 BST in the Argentine Primera División at Estadio 15 de Abril.
More Argentine Primera División This Week
See all Argentine Primera División fixtures →With the hosts averaging 0.9 goals conceded at home and the visitors conceding 1.2 away, the statistical edge points to a Union Santa Fe victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
