Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin: Union Santa Fe to win
Union Santa Fe average 1.4 expected goals per match against Sarmiento Junin’s 0.8, and the model assigns a 51.1% win probability to the home side. The draw sits at 27.4% while Sarmiento’s chance sits at 21.4%.
Both clubs enter this Argentine Primera División clash with contrasting recent runs – Union Santa Fe has mixed results but still boasts a positive home scoring record, whereas Sarmiento Junin arrives on a three‑match winning streak regardless of venue.
Bez's Verdict
The model gives Union a 51.1% chance of winning, driven by their 1.4 expected goals versus Sarmiento’s 0.8 and a superior home defensive record.
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With Union Santa Fe averaging 1.4 expected goals and Sarmiento Junin averaging 0.8, the model gives a 58.5% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 41.5% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.2 (Union Santa Fe 1.4 + Sarmiento Junin 0.8) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 62.3% chance against 37.7% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Union Santa Fe at 51.1%, the draw at 27.4%, and Sarmiento Junin at 21.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 15.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Union Santa Fe
Union’s recent five‑game run (L 0‑2 vs Gimnasia M. (A), W 2‑1 vs Lanus (H), L 1‑2 vs Central Cordoba (H), L 0‑1 vs San Lorenzo (A), W 3‑1 vs Aldosivi (A)) includes two convincing wins – 2‑1 at home against Lanus and 3‑1 away at Aldosivi – showing they can generate goals when needed. Those wins, alongside the overall 1.4 expected‑goals figure, indicate a capacity to break through Sarmiento’s defence.
Sarmiento Junin
Sarmiento Junin’s last five results (L 2‑3 vs Argentinos JRS (H), L 2‑3 vs Banfield (A), W 2‑1 vs Independ. Rivadavia (H), W 2‑1 vs Atletico Tucuman (A), W 2‑0 vs Huracan (H)) feature three straight victories, including a 2‑0 home win over Huracan and a 2‑1 away win at Atletico Tucuman. This recent momentum suggests they can pose a threat, yet their expected‑goals of 0.8 remain low.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Union Santa Fe have won three times – 1‑3 (2026‑02‑26), 1‑2 (2024‑03‑02), and 1‑0 (2023‑10‑08) – while Sarmiento secured two wins – 0‑2 (2023‑05‑15) and 1‑0 (2024‑09‑29). The head‑to‑head trend favors Union, reinforcing the win pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb 2026 | Sarmiento Junin 1-3 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Sarmiento Junin 1-0 Union Santa Fe | Liga Profesional Argentina |
| 2 Mar 2024 | Sarmiento Junin 1-2 Union Santa Fe | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| 8 Oct 2023 | Union Santa Fe 1-0 Sarmiento Junin | Copa de la Liga Profesional |
| 15 May 2023 | Union Santa Fe 0-2 Sarmiento Junin | Liga Profesional Argentina |
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Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin?
Union Santa Fe won 4-1. Our pre-match pick was Union Santa Fe to win.
What was the final score of Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin?
Union Santa Fe 4-1 Sarmiento Junin (full time).
When was Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin?
Union Santa Fe played Sarmiento Junin on Fri 28 Aug · 23:00 BST in the Argentine Primera División at Estadio 15 de Abril.
More Argentine Primera División This Week
See all Argentine Primera División fixtures →Given the xG differential and the defensive disparity, the model’s strongest signal points to a Union Santa Fe victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
