Uxbridge vs Farnborough: Uxbridge to win
Uxbridge's season‑long scoring rate translates to a 3.0 expected‑goals mark at home, while Farnborough struggles to find the net away with just 1.35 expected. The model backs a 70.4% win probability for the hosts, making a straight win the clearest pick.
In this FA Cup tie, Uxbridge arrive buoyed by a perfect home defensive record and a prolific attack, whereas Farnborough have yet to register an away goal this season. The contrast in offensive output sets the stage for a one‑sided encounter.
Robbo's Verdict
With a three‑goal home scoring average and a clean defensive sheet, Uxbridge’s odds of winning sit at 70.4%, making the win the most probable outcome.
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With Uxbridge averaging 3.0 expected goals and Farnborough averaging 1.35, the model gives a 70.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 29.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.3 (Uxbridge 3.0 + Farnborough 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 80.5% chance against 19.5% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Uxbridge at 70.4%, the draw at 14.9%, and Farnborough at 14.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-1 at 7.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Uxbridge
Uxbridge’s recent form includes a 3‑0 victory over Haywards Heath Town at home, confirming their ability to score freely and keep clean sheets. That win, combined with a three‑goal home average, shows the side is in fine scoring rhythm and reinforces the expectation of another win in this cup tie.
Farnborough
Farnborough’s recent league form is unavailable, but their away record shows zero goals scored and zero conceded, indicating a lack of offensive output on the road. This absence of scoring threat supports the view that they are unlikely to overturn the home side’s advantage.
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Uxbridge vs Farnborough?
Uxbridge to win. With a three‑goal home scoring average and a clean defensive sheet, Uxbridge’s odds of winning sit at 70.4%, making the win the most probable outcome.
What does the model give Uxbridge vs Farnborough?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Uxbridge a 70.4% chance, the draw 14.9%, and Farnborough 14.3% to win.
When is Uxbridge vs Farnborough?
Uxbridge play Farnborough on Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →Those stark differences feed directly into the model’s 70.4% win probability for Uxbridge, signalling a high‑confidence home win.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
