Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba: Coritiba to win
Vasco's home attack averages just 1.2 xG while Coritiba's away threat sits at 1.4 xG. The model rates Coritiba's win probability at 41.6%, the highest single outcome likelihood.
Both clubs have been erratic in the last five rounds, but the clash pits a struggling Vasco side against a Coritiba that has shown it can find the net away from home. With a narrow margin in expected goals, the statistical edge points toward the visitors.
Bez's Verdict
Coritiba's superior away xG (1.4 vs 1.2) and a higher model win probability make them the clear favorite for three points.
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With Vasco DA Gama averaging 1.2 expected goals and Coritiba averaging 1.4, the model gives a 52.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 47.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.6 (Vasco DA Gama 1.2 + Coritiba 1.4) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 51.8% chance against 48.2% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Vasco DA Gama at 32.2%, the draw at 26.2%, and Coritiba at 41.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco's recent five‑game run (L 0‑3 vs Santos (H), L 1‑4 vs Palmeiras (A), W 3‑1 vs Cruzeiro (H), L 0‑1 vs Fluminense (A), W 2‑1 vs Gremio (A)) shows a pattern of heavy defeats punctuated by occasional wins. The 0‑3 loss at home and a 1‑4 defeat away illustrate defensive frailties, while the 3‑1 home win is an outlier; this inconsistency underlines why a win for Vasco looks unlikely in this fixture.
Coritiba
Coritiba's last five results (D 1‑1 vs São Paulo (A), W 2‑1 vs Corinthians (H), W 3‑2 vs Remo (A), L 1‑2 vs Mirassol (H), D 3‑3 vs Atlético Paraná (H)) include a 1‑1 away draw and a 3‑2 away win, proving they can both hold and score on the road. The ability to net three away goals against Remo suggests they have the firepower to exploit Vasco's defensive weakness.
Head-to-Head
Recent head‑to‑head meetings have been tight, with a 1‑1 draw on 1 April 2026 and another 1‑1 draw on 11 May 2023, while Vasco's 5‑1 win in September 2023 remains an outlier; the prevalence of draws supports the expectation of goals from both sides but favours the away side’s chance to pick up points.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Apr 2026 | Coritiba 1-1 Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
| 21 Sep 2023 | Vasco DA Gama 5-1 Coritiba | Serie A |
| 11 May 2023 | Coritiba 1-1 Vasco DA Gama | Serie A |
| 16 Oct 2021 | Vasco DA Gama 2-1 Coritiba | Serie B |
| 14 Jul 2021 | Coritiba 1-1 Vasco DA Gama | Serie B |
Team News (Pregame)
Vasco DA Gama: Brenner (Knee Injury), Mateus Carvalho (Knee Injury), Cuiabano (Muscle Injury), Jair (Muscle Injury)
Coritiba: Lucas Ronier (Knee Injury), B. Ocampo (Injury), Tinga (Muscle Injury), Tiago Coser (Yellow Cards)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba?
Vasco DA Gama won 5-0. Our pre-match pick was Coritiba to win.
What was the final score of Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba?
Vasco DA Gama 5-0 Coritiba (full time).
When was Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba?
Vasco DA Gama played Coritiba on Sun 20 Sep · 00:30 BST in the Brasileirão at TBC.
More Brasileirão This Week
See all Brasileirão fixtures →Given Vasco's recent home defeats and Coritiba's ability to score away, the model’s 41.6% win probability for the visitors stands out as the most compelling single market.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
