VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln: Both teams to score – Yes
Stuttgart and Köln both sit on an identical 1.35 xG rating, and the model pegs the chance of both sides finding the net at 54.9 %.
Stuttgart come off a 2‑2 draw at Eintracht Frankfurt and a heavy 1‑5 loss to Bayern, while Köln have managed a 1‑1 stalemate with St. Pauli, a 2‑2 draw with Union Berlin and a 1‑2 defeat at Leverkusen. Injuries on both sides – notably Stuttgart’s Arevalo and Köln’s Hubers – leave each team missing a handful of regulars, but the attacking impetus remains clear.
Robbo's Verdict
The model rates the BTTS market at 54.9 %, backed by recent draws where both clubs have scored and identical xG values.
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With VfB Stuttgart averaging 1.35 expected goals and 1. FC Köln averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (VfB Stuttgart 1.35 + 1. FC Köln 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has VfB Stuttgart at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and 1. FC Köln at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
VfB Stuttgart
Stuttgart’s last two league results are a 2‑2 draw away at Eintracht Frankfurt and a 1‑5 loss away to Bayern Munich. The draw demonstrates their ability to score twice, while the heavy defeat shows defensive frailties – a combination that supports a BTTS outcome.
1. FC Köln
Köln’s recent five results include a 1‑1 draw at St. Pauli, a 2‑2 draw away at Union Berlin, and a 1‑2 loss at Bayer Leverkusen. They have found the net in three of those games, underscoring a consistent goal threat that bolsters the BTTS market.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Stuttgart have won four (3‑1, 2‑1, 2‑0, 3‑0) and drawn once (1‑1), meaning Köln have scored in at least three of those encounters, reinforcing the likelihood of both sides scoring this time.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Feb 2026 | VfB Stuttgart 3-1 1. FC Köln | Bundesliga |
| 28 Sep 2025 | 1. FC Köln 1-2 VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 24 Feb 2024 | VfB Stuttgart 1-1 1. FC Köln | Bundesliga |
| 30 Sep 2023 | 1. FC Köln 0-2 VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 18 Feb 2023 | VfB Stuttgart 3-0 1. FC Köln | Bundesliga |
Team News (Pregame)
VfB Stuttgart: J. Arevalo (Back Injury), L. Assignon (Shoulder Injury), J. Diehl (Muscle Injury), C. Fuhrich (Muscle Injury)
1. FC Köln: T. Hubers (Knee Injury), J. Pauli (Inactive), S. Sebulonsen (Muscle Injury), L. Maina (Shin Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
VfB Stuttgart won 4-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – Yes.
What was the final score of VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
VfB Stuttgart 4-1 1. FC Köln (full time).
When was VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln?
VfB Stuttgart played 1. FC Köln on Fri 4 Sep · 19:30 BST in the Bundesliga at MHPArena.
More Bundesliga This Week
See all Bundesliga fixtures →With each team capable of scoring and the model assigning a 54.9 % chance to both sides hitting the net, the safest read is that both teams will find the back of the net.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
