VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund: VfB Stuttgart to win
Stuttgart's 4.0 expected goals at home face Dortmund's 3.0 on the road, and the model assigns a 55.2% chance of a home win.
Both clubs come into this clash with contrasting recent form – Stuttgart have been inconsistent, while Dortmund have ridden a three‑match winning streak.
Robbo's Verdict
The model's 55.2% win probability for Stuttgart, driven by their superior home xG, makes this the most convincing single‑team pick.
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With VfB Stuttgart averaging 4.0 expected goals and Borussia Dortmund averaging 3.0, the model gives a 90.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 9.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 7.0 (VfB Stuttgart 4.0 + Borussia Dortmund 3.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 94.5% chance against 5.5% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has VfB Stuttgart at 55.2%, the draw at 14.4%, and Borussia Dortmund at 27.9% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 3-2 at 4.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
VfB Stuttgart
Stuttgart's recent form reads L‑W‑L, highlighted by a 4-1 home win over 1. FC Köln and a 1-5 away loss to Bayern München. The dominant win at home shows they can exploit their scoring edge, while the heavy defeat away reinforces the significance of the home venue for this pick.
Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund arrive on a three‑game winning run, with a 2-0 home win over Hamburger SV and a 3-2 away win at Hoffenheim. Both victories demonstrate attacking potency, but the 3-0 home triumph over SC Paderborn 07 emphasises their ability to dominate matches, suggesting they can still threaten despite being the underdog here.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Stuttgart have won three times, including a 5-1 home victory, while Dortmund have only secured one win, indicating a historical edge for Stuttgart that aligns with the model's home win probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2026 | VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Borussia Dortmund 3-3 VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 8 Feb 2025 | Borussia Dortmund 1-2 VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 22 Sep 2024 | VfB Stuttgart 5-1 Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga |
| 6 Apr 2024 | Borussia Dortmund 0-1 VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
Team News (Pregame)
VfB Stuttgart: L. Assignon (Shoulder Injury), J. Diehl (Muscle Injury), L. Jaquez (Muscle Injury), N. Nartey (Thigh Injury)
Borussia Dortmund: E. Can (Knee Injury), S. Inacio (Red Card), M. Kaba (Injury), K. Karetsas (Health problems)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was VfB Stuttgart to win.
What was the final score of VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
VfB Stuttgart 0-1 Borussia Dortmund (full time).
When was VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?
VfB Stuttgart played Borussia Dortmund on Sat 19 Sep · 17:30 BST in the Bundesliga at MHPArena.
More Bundesliga This Week
See all Bundesliga fixtures →Given the clear edge in expected goal metrics and Dortmund's recent dominance, the model strongly favours a Stuttgart win.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
