Viborg vs Lyngby: Viborg to win
Viborg's 2.3 expected goals per game dwarf Lyngby's 1.0, and the model rates a 66.5% chance of a home win. Recent form and head‑to‑head trends reinforce that advantage.
Both teams arrive on a Friday night in contrasting shapes: Viborg have surged with three wins in their last five, while Lyngby have faltered, losing four of five. The disparity in recent results sets the tone for a likely one‑sided encounter.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns Viborg a 66.5% chance of victory, driven by superior expected goals and a superior recent run of form.
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With Viborg averaging 2.3 expected goals and Lyngby averaging 1.0, the model gives a 56.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 43.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.3 (Viborg 2.3 + Lyngby 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 64.0% chance against 36.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Viborg at 66.5%, the draw at 18.5%, and Lyngby at 15.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-0 at 9.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Viborg
Viborg's recent five‑game stretch reads L‑D‑W‑W‑W, highlighted by a 4‑0 home thrashing of FC Copenhagen and a 2‑1 home win over Aarhus. Those two emphatic victories demonstrate their attacking potency and underpin the model's confidence in a home win.
Lyngby
Lyngby have compiled L‑D‑L‑D‑L, including a 0‑2 away loss to Randers FC and a 1‑2 away defeat at AC Horsens. Their inability to secure a win in five matches, especially on the road, reinforces the low probability of an upset.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, the scores have been tight: 0‑0 (2025), 1‑1 (2025), 0‑0 (2024), 1‑0 (2024) and a 3‑1 win for Lyngby on 2024‑05‑20. The majority of draws and the recent 3‑1 loss for Viborg suggest that Lyngby can keep games close, but the overall trend still favors Viborg at home.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 4 May 2025 | Lyngby 0-0 Viborg | Superliga |
| 21 Apr 2025 | Viborg 1-1 Lyngby | Superliga |
| 20 Oct 2024 | Lyngby 0-0 Viborg | Superliga |
| 26 Aug 2024 | Viborg 1-0 Lyngby | Superliga |
| 20 May 2024 | Lyngby 3-1 Viborg | Superliga |
Team News (Pregame)
Viborg: T. Freriks (Knock), Y. Njoh (Injury), M. Riahi (Knee Injury), M. Hoedemakers (Inactive)
Lyngby: O. Snorre (Knee Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Viborg vs Lyngby?
Lyngby won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Viborg to win.
What was the final score of Viborg vs Lyngby?
Viborg 0-2 Lyngby (full time).
When was Viborg vs Lyngby?
Viborg played Lyngby on Fri 4 Sep · 18:00 BST in the Danish Superliga at Energi Viborg Arena.
More Danish Superliga This Week
See all Danish Superliga fixtures →All indicators point to Viborg dominating the match, making a straight win the most logical bet.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
