Vikingur Reykjavik vs Borac Banja Luka preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

Conference League · Playoff round FT · Vikingur Reykjavik 1-3 Borac Banja Luka TBC

Vikingur Reykjavik vs Borac Banja Luka: Borac Banja Luka to win

Borac Banja Luka arrive with a 2.5 xG advantage and a 62.4 % win probability, while Vikingur Reykjavik sit on a modest 1.35 xG at home. The model also flags a 73.8 % chance of more than 2.5 goals, underscoring the likely fire‑power of the visitors.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Borac Banja Luka to win Won

Strong · xG gap

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Won

67.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

73.8% model probability

The Conference League tie pits Icelandic hosts Vikingur Reykjavik against a Borac Banja Luka side that has proven its scoring punch on the road. Both clubs know a win advances them in the competition, and the numbers point to a clear imbalance.

Robbo's Verdict

Strong

Borac Banja Luka to win Won Strong lean Strong · xG gap

The model’s win probability of 62.4 % and the away team’s superior 2.5 xG make a Borac win the most likely outcome.

Show the maths

The model assigns Borac a 2.5 expected‑goals rating versus Vikingur’s 1.35, creating a 1.15 xG differential in Borac’s favour. That gap translates into a 62.4 % win probability for Borac and only 19.3 % for Vikingur, with draws at 18.2 %. The high away goals‑for average (2.5) further reinforces the likelihood of Borac scoring at least once, cementing the win prediction.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Won 67.9% model probability

With Vikingur Reykjavik averaging 1.35 expected goals and Borac Banja Luka averaging 2.5, the model gives a 67.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 32.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Vikingur Reykjavik 1.35, Borac Banja Luka 2.5) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 67.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 32.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 73.8% model probability

Combined expected goals of 3.9 (Vikingur Reykjavik 1.35 + Borac Banja Luka 2.5) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 73.8% chance against 26.2% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Vikingur Reykjavik 1.35 + Borac Banja Luka 2.5 = 3.9 combined): 73.8% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 26.2% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Vikingur Reykjavik at 19.3%, the draw at 18.2%, and Borac Banja Luka at 62.4% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-2 at 9.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Vikingur Reykjavik expected goals

1.35

Borac Banja Luka expected goals

2.5

Model BTTS probability

67.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-2

9.0%

21-3

7.5%

31-1

7.2%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Head-to-Head

The most recent head‑to‑head meeting on 7 Nov 2024 ended 2‑0 to Vikingur Reykjavik, a result that does not reflect Borac’s current away scoring form, so the trend tilts toward a Borac win this time.

Date	Result	Competition
7 Nov 2024	Vikingur Reykjavik 2-0 Borac Banja Luka	UEFA Europa Conference League

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Borac clinched a playoff spot on penalties

2 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Vikingur Reykjavik vs Borac Banja Luka?

Borac Banja Luka won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Borac Banja Luka to win.

What was the final score of Vikingur Reykjavik vs Borac Banja Luka?

Vikingur Reykjavik 1-3 Borac Banja Luka (full time).

When was Vikingur Reykjavik vs Borac Banja Luka?

Vikingur Reykjavik played Borac Banja Luka on Thu 20 Aug · 18:00 BST in the Conference League at TBC.

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With the visitors’ scoring edge and the model’s 62.4 % win probability, the logical conclusion points to a Borac victory.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups