Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna: Both teams to score - No
Villarreal's expected 1.35 goals sit just above Deportivo's 1.0, but the model rates the match as a tight affair. The BTTS probability leans toward both sides staying quiet, making a no‑score‑both‑sides bet attractive.
Both teams come into the encounter with modest recent form – Villarreal have slid to a DDL run while Deportivo have edged a DDW pattern. Neither side has been prolific, and defensive frailties have been exposed in recent draws.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns a 53.2% chance of neither side scoring, reinforced by Villarreal's zero home goal average and Deportivo's modest away goal rate.
Show the maths
With Villarreal averaging 1.35 expected goals and Deportivo La Coruna averaging 1.0, the model gives a 53.2% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.8% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.4 (Villarreal 1.35 + Deportivo La Coruna 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 58.3% chance against 41.7% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Villarreal at 44.8%, the draw at 27.5%, and Deportivo La Coruna at 27.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Villarreal
Villarreal’s recent form shows a DDL run: a 2‑2 draw at Racing Santander, another 2‑2 draw at Atletico Madrid, and a 0‑1 loss to Alaves. The two draws indicate they can score, but the loss and the lack of home goals this season suggest they may struggle to break down a disciplined defense, supporting a BTTS‑No outlook.
Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna have recorded a DDW sequence: 1‑1 home draw with Elche, 1‑1 away draw at Malaga, and a 3‑1 home win over Valencia. While the win shows attacking potential, the two consecutive draws where they both scored and conceded underline inconsistency, reinforcing the case for a clean‑sheet for at least one side.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, the teams have produced one Villarreal win (4‑2 in 2018), one Deportivo win (2‑0 in 2016), and three draws (1‑1, 0‑0, 0‑0), indicating a balanced rivalry that does not favour high‑scoring outcomes.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 12 May 2018 | Deportivo La Coruna 2-4 Villarreal | La Liga |
| 7 Jan 2018 | Villarreal 1-1 Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 14 May 2017 | Villarreal 0-0 Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 14 Jan 2017 | Deportivo La Coruna 0-0 Villarreal | La Liga |
| 8 May 2016 | Villarreal 0-2 Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
Team News (Pregame)
Villarreal: A. Diatta (Red Card), W. Kambwala (Transfer negotiations)
Deportivo La Coruna: N. Carrillo (Injury), A. Traore (Muscle Injury), Y. Hernandez (Groin Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Deportivo La Coruna won 3-2. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - No.
What was the final score of Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Villarreal 2-3 Deportivo La Coruna (full time).
When was Villarreal vs Deportivo La Coruna?
Villarreal played Deportivo La Coruna on Sat 5 Sep · 20:00 BST in the La Liga at Estadio de la Ceramica.
More La Liga This Week
See all La Liga fixtures →With both sides averaging roughly a goal per game and the BTTS odds favoring a quiet night, the safest read is that at least one side will fail to find the net.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
