Warrington Town vs South Liverpool: Warrington Town to win
Warrington Town's 4.0 expected goals and a 70.9% win probability make them heavy favourites against South Liverpool, whose 2.0 expected goals and 14.8% win chance hint at a one‑sided cup tie.
Both clubs arrive from contrasting league form – Warrington Town with a mixed recent spell and South Liverpool rattled by heavy defeats – setting up a clash where the home side's scoring edge should dominate.
Robbo's Verdict
The model’s 70.9% win probability, driven by a 4.0 expected‑goals advantage and South Liverpool’s weaker away record, makes a home win the clear choice.
Show the maths
With Warrington Town averaging 4.0 expected goals and South Liverpool averaging 2.0, the model gives a 83.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 17.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 6.0 (Warrington Town 4.0 + South Liverpool 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 91.6% chance against 8.4% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Warrington Town at 70.9%, the draw at 12.2%, and South Liverpool at 14.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 3-1 at 5.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Warrington Town
Warrington Town’s recent league form shows a draw (2‑2 at Shildon AFC) followed by a dominant 4‑0 home win over the same opponent. The clean sheet in the 4‑0 victory highlights defensive solidity, reinforcing their ability to keep South Liverpool at bay while scoring heavily, which supports a home win.
South Liverpool
South Liverpool’s last five league games include a 1‑1 home draw with Witton Albion, a 1‑3 away loss to the same side, a crushing 0‑6 defeat at Bury, a 2‑2 home draw with Prestwich Heys, and a 2‑1 away win over Prestwich Heys. The three heavy defeats and only one win underline their vulnerability, especially away, backing the expectation of a home win for Warrington.
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Warrington Town vs South Liverpool?
Warrington Town won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was Warrington Town to win.
What was the final score of Warrington Town vs South Liverpool?
Warrington Town 3-0 South Liverpool (full time).
When was Warrington Town vs South Liverpool?
Warrington Town played South Liverpool on Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →With the model assigning a 70.9% chance to a home win and the statistical gap wide, the logical pick is for Warrington Town to emerge victorious.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
