Waterford vs Bohemians: Both teams to score - Yes
Waterford average 1.2 expected goals at home while Bohemians post 1.8 away, giving the visitors a clear edge in fire‑power. The model backs a 58.3% chance both sides will find the net.
Both clubs arrive with contrasting recent runs – Waterford have secured three wins and two draws in their last five, while Bohemians have recorded three wins, a draw and a single loss. Their head‑to‑head record favours Bohemians, who have three victories to Waterford’s one in the last five meetings.
Hamish's Verdict
The model’s 58.3% BTTS probability, combined with Waterford’s recent scoring in a 3‑2 win and Bohemians’ steady away goal output, makes a double‑strike the most likely outcome.
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With Waterford averaging 1.2 expected goals and Bohemians averaging 1.8, the model gives a 58.3% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 41.7% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.0 (Waterford 1.2 + Bohemians 1.8) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 57.7% chance against 42.3% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Waterford at 25.4%, the draw at 23.1%, and Bohemians at 51.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 10.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Waterford
Waterford opened the five‑game run with a 3‑2 away win over Dundalk and capped it with a 1‑0 home win against Shelbourne, demonstrating they can both score and keep a clean sheet. Their two draws (1‑1 vs St Patrick's at home and 0‑0 away at Galway) show they are also capable of limiting opponents, which supports the view that they will score but not dominate the game.
Bohemians
Bohemians rebounded from a 1‑2 home loss to Dundalk with a 3‑0 away win over Shelbourne and a 2‑0 home victory over St Patrick's Athletic, confirming a strong goal‑scoring trend. A further 2‑0 away win at Drogheda United and a 1‑1 home draw with Galway United underline their ability to both find the net and limit goals against, feeding into the BTTS outlook.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Bohemians have three wins, one draw (1‑1 on 2026‑04‑06) and one loss, indicating they generally have the upper hand but the fixtures have produced goals on both sides.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Apr 2026 | Bohemians 1-1 Waterford | Premier Division |
| 6 Mar 2026 | Waterford 0-1 Bohemians | Premier Division |
| 30 Jan 2026 | Waterford 1-4 Bohemians | Friendlies Clubs |
| 19 Sep 2025 | Bohemians 2-1 Waterford | Premier Division |
| 20 Jun 2025 | Waterford 2-1 Bohemians | Premier Division |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Waterford vs Bohemians?
Waterford won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.
What was the final score of Waterford vs Bohemians?
Waterford 3-1 Bohemians (full time).
When was Waterford vs Bohemians?
Waterford played Bohemians on Sun 9 Aug · 15:00 BST in the League of Ireland at Regional Sports Centre.
More League of Ireland This Week
See all League of Ireland fixtures →With both teams showing the ability to score and the model assigning a high BTTS probability, the safest read points to both sides putting a goal past each other.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
