Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg: FC Augsburg to win
Werder Bremen's home xG sits at 3.0 while Augsburg boast a 4.0 away xG, and the model rates Augsburg's win probability at 55.2 % – a clear edge for the visitors.
Both sides come into the clash with contrasting recent form: Bremen have stumbled with a loss, win and draw in their last three games, whereas Augsburg have collected two wins and a draw from the same span. The statistical imbalance in expected goals and a history that favours Augsburg set the tone for a decisive result.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns Augsburg a 55.2 % chance of victory, reflecting their higher expected goals and recent form advantage.
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With Werder Bremen averaging 3.0 expected goals and FC Augsburg averaging 4.0, the model gives a 90.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 9.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 7.0 (Werder Bremen 3.0 + FC Augsburg 4.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 94.5% chance against 5.5% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Werder Bremen at 27.9%, the draw at 14.4%, and FC Augsburg at 55.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-3 at 4.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Werder Bremen
Bremen’s last five results read L, W, D, with the most recent fixtures showing a 1‑4 loss to SC Freiburg away, a 3‑1 home win over RB Leipzig and a 1‑1 draw away at 1. FC Köln. The win against Leipzig demonstrates they can score, but the heavy loss to Freiburg and the draw against Köln highlight inconsistency, which weakens their case for a win here.
FC Augsburg
Augsburg’s recent run includes a 0‑4 away defeat to Union Berlin, followed by a 3‑0 home victory over Schalke 04, a 4‑1 away win at Eintracht Frankfurt and a 2‑2 home draw with Bayer Leverkusen. The three‑goal wins illustrate potent attacking form, while the draw against Leverkusen shows they can hold a strong side, reinforcing their win probability.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Augsburg have won twice (1‑3 in May 2026 and 0‑2 in Jan 2025) and drawn twice, with the most recent encounter a 0‑0 stalemate; this recent dominance supports the Augsburg win pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2 May 2026 | Werder Bremen 1-3 FC Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 20 Dec 2025 | FC Augsburg 0-0 Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 19 Jan 2025 | Werder Bremen 0-2 FC Augsburg | Bundesliga |
| 24 Aug 2024 | FC Augsburg 2-2 Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 27 Apr 2024 | FC Augsburg 0-3 Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
Team News
Werder Bremen: F. Agu (Calf Injury), S. Lynen (Hip Injury), J. Njinmah (Thigh Injury), J. Stage (Muscle Injury)
FC Augsburg: T. Breithaupt (Injury), A. Kade (Injury), S. Mounie (Injury), F. Sakar (Ankle Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg to win. The model assigns Augsburg a 55.2 % chance of victory, reflecting their higher expected goals and recent form advantage.
What does the model give Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Werder Bremen a 27.9% chance, the draw 14.4%, and FC Augsburg 55.2% to win.
When is Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Werder Bremen play FC Augsburg on Sat 19 Sep · 14:30 BST in the Bundesliga at Weserstadion.
Are there any injury concerns for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?
Werder Bremen: F. Agu (Calf Injury), S. Lynen (Hip Injury), J. Njinmah (Thigh Injury), J. Stage (Muscle Injury). FC Augsburg: T. Breithaupt (Injury), A. Kade (Injury), S. Mounie (Injury), F. Sakar (Ankle Injury). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Bundesliga This Week
See all Bundesliga fixtures →Given the superior away xG, the recent winning streak of Augsburg, and a head‑to‑head record that favours the visitors, the logical conclusion is a win for FC Augsburg.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
