Weston-super-Mare vs Wimborne Town: Wimborne Town to win
Wimborne Town's 3.0 xG dwarfs Weston-super-Mare's 1.35, and the model rates a 70.4% chance of an away win. Expect a high‑scoring affair with plenty of chances.
The FA Cup tie pits a prolific away side against a home team that has struggled to find the net this season. With Wimborne Town averaging three goals per game on the road and Weston's attack rated at just 1.35 expected goals, the odds heavily favor the visitors.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns a 70.4% probability to an away win, driven by Wimborne's superior xG and defensive record versus Weston's goalless home output.
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With Weston-super-Mare averaging 1.35 expected goals and Wimborne Town averaging 3.0, the model gives a 70.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 29.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.3 (Weston-super-Mare 1.35 + Wimborne Town 3.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 80.5% chance against 19.5% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Weston-super-Mare at 14.3%, the draw at 14.9%, and Wimborne Town at 70.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-2 at 7.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Head-to-Head
In the last four meetings, Weston-super-Mare has won three (2-0, 4-0, 2-0) while Wimborne Town has only one win (1-2), but those fixtures featured Weston at home, whereas this tie flips the venue, aligning with Wimborne's strong away numbers.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Sep 2024 | Wimborne Town 0-2 Weston-super-Mare | FA Cup |
| 22 Mar 2022 | Wimborne Town 0-4 Weston-super-Mare | Non League Premier - Southern South |
| 12 Feb 2022 | Weston-super-Mare 2-0 Wimborne Town | Non League Premier - Southern South |
| 13 Nov 2021 | Weston-super-Mare 1-2 Wimborne Town | FA Trophy |
| 9 Jan 2021 | Wimborne Town None-None Weston-super-Mare | Non League Premier - Southern South |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Weston-super-Mare vs Wimborne Town?
Wimborne Town to win. The model assigns a 70.4% probability to an away win, driven by Wimborne's superior xG and defensive record versus Weston's goalless home output.
What does the model give Weston-super-Mare vs Wimborne Town?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Weston-super-Mare a 14.3% chance, the draw 14.9%, and Wimborne Town 70.4% to win.
When is Weston-super-Mare vs Wimborne Town?
Weston-super-Mare play Wimborne Town on Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →All signs point to Wimborne Town imposing their attacking edge and taking the three points, making the match‑result pick the most logical selection.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
