Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom: Under 2.5 goals
Widzew Łódź boast a 1.5 expected‑goals mark versus Radomiak’s meagre 0.5, while the model predicts a 67.7% chance of under 2.5 goals. The numbers point to a low‑scoring home win.
Both sides come into the clash with contrasting recent form – Widzew Łódź have steadied after a mixed run, whereas Radomiak Radom have barely scraped a point from five games. The disparity in defensive records – 2.0 goals conceded per game at home for Widzew versus 4.0 away for Radomiak – frames the tactical battle.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 67.7% probability to the match staying under 2.5 goals, driven by Widzew’s modest scoring and Radomiak’s poor away record.
Show the maths
With Widzew Łódź averaging 1.5 expected goals and Radomiak Radom averaging 0.5, the model gives a 69.4% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 30.6% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.0 (Widzew Łódź 1.5 + Radomiak Radom 0.5) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 67.7% chance against 32.3% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Widzew Łódź at 62.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Radomiak Radom at 12.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 20.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Widzew Łódź
Widzew Łódź’s last five league results read D‑D‑W‑L‑D, highlighted by a 2‑0 away victory over Jagiellonia and a 1‑2 home loss to Korona Kielce. The win against Jagiellonia shows they can find the net, while the loss to Korona underscores defensive frailties, reinforcing a modest scoring outlook that supports an under‑2.5 goal total.
Radomiak Radom
Radomiak Radom’s five-game stretch of L‑L‑L‑D‑W includes a 0‑5 drubbing by Legia Warszawa and a 1‑3 defeat at GKS Katowice, evidencing a porous defense and limited scoring. Their recent 2‑1 home win over Cracovia is the only bright spot, but the overall trend of conceding heavily away signals they are unlikely to push the game beyond 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Widzew Łódź have won three, including a 3‑2 home win in 2024, while Radomiak secured a 2‑1 victory in April 2026; the overall head‑to‑head favors Widzew, aligning with the low‑scoring outlook.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | Radomiak Radom 2-1 Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa |
| 17 Oct 2025 | Widzew Łódź 3-2 Radomiak Radom | Ekstraklasa |
| 28 Feb 2025 | Radomiak Radom 1-1 Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa |
| 23 Aug 2024 | Widzew Łódź 3-2 Radomiak Radom | Ekstraklasa |
| 25 May 2024 | Radomiak Radom 1-3 Widzew Łódź | Ekstraklasa |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom?
Widzew Łódź and Radomiak Radom drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom?
Widzew Łódź 0-0 Radomiak Radom (full time).
When was Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom?
Widzew Łódź played Radomiak Radom on Sat 5 Sep · 13:45 BST in the Ekstraklasa at TBC.
More Ekstraklasa This Week
See all Ekstraklasa fixtures →With the home side’s attack likely to outpace the visitors and both teams averaging fewer than two goals combined, the match is primed for fewer than 2.5 goals.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
