Wingate & Finchley vs Hemel Hempstead Town: Wingate & Finchley draw no bet
Wingate & Finchley and Hemel Hempstead Town both sit on an expected 1.35 goals per game, giving the FA Cup tie a perfectly balanced scoring outlook. The model’s match‑result odds are split 37.1% each, with a 25.8% chance of a draw, pointing to a tight contest.
Both clubs enter the third‑round draw on modest recent form – Wingate have managed a draw, a win and another draw in their last three league outings, while Hemel have only recorded a single 1‑1 stalemate. Neither side has shown a dominant run, so the cup fixture will likely hinge on fine margins.
Robbo's Verdict
Back Wingate & Finchley on a draw‑no‑bet basis, as the model gives them a 59% chance of a win once the draw option is excluded.
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With Wingate & Finchley averaging 1.35 expected goals and Hemel Hempstead Town averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Wingate & Finchley 1.35 + Hemel Hempstead Town 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Wingate & Finchley at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Hemel Hempstead Town at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Wingate & Finchley
Wingate & Finchley's recent league run includes a 0‑0 draw at home against Felixstowe & Walton United and a 2‑0 away win over the same opponents, followed by a 1‑1 draw away at Hemel Hempstead Town. The win demonstrates their ability to find the net, while the two draws show a propensity for low‑scoring outcomes – a pattern that aligns with the draw‑no‑bet pick by indicating they can avoid defeat even if the match stays tight.
Hemel Hempstead Town
Hemel Hempstead Town’s latest league result is a 1‑1 home draw against Wingate & Finchley. That single fixture shows they can both score and concede, reinforcing the expectation of a balanced encounter and supporting the view that Wingate’s draw‑no‑bet has merit because Hemel are unlikely to dominate.
Head-to-Head
The most recent head‑to‑head ended 1‑1 in September 2026, while the 2019 meeting produced a 4‑2 win for Hemel, indicating that draws are common but high‑scoring games have occurred – a pattern that underpins the draw‑no‑bet advantage for Wingate.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Hemel Hempstead Town 1-1 Wingate & Finchley | FA Cup |
| 12 Jan 2019 | Hemel Hempstead Town 4-2 Wingate & Finchley | FA Trophy |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Wingate & Finchley vs Hemel Hempstead Town?
Wingate & Finchley won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Wingate & Finchley draw no bet.
What was the final score of Wingate & Finchley vs Hemel Hempstead Town?
Wingate & Finchley 2-1 Hemel Hempstead Town (full time).
When was Wingate & Finchley vs Hemel Hempstead Town?
Wingate & Finchley played Hemel Hempstead Town on Tue 22 Sep · 19:45 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →Given the symmetry, the safest market is a draw‑no‑bet on Wingate & Finchley, where the draw is removed and the win probability rises to just under 60%. This reflects the slight edge the home side enjoys in the model’s calculations.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
