Winslow United vs Swindon Supermarine preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

FA Cup · Round of 16 FT · Winslow United 0-0 Swindon Supermarine TBC

Winslow United vs Swindon Supermarine: Both teams to score - Yes

Winslow United and Swindon Supermarine are locked at 1.35 xG each, making a goal‑rich encounter the most likely outcome in this FA Cup tie.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Both teams to score - Yes Lost

Solid · Balanced attack

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Lost

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost

50.6% model probability

Both sides enter the third‑round draw with identical expected‑goals figures, indicating they have been equally effective and vulnerable in front of goal this season.

Robbo's Verdict

Solid

Both teams to score - Yes Lost Solid lean Solid · Balanced attack

With a 54.9% model probability for both sides scoring, the data suggests a goal from each team is the most probable outcome.

Show the maths

The model assigns each team an expected‑goals value of 1.35, which translates into a combined xG of 2.70 for the match. That aggregate xG sits just above the 2.5 goal threshold, pushing the over probability to 50.6% and the BTTS probability to 54.9%. Because both teams are expected to produce a goal each, the model rates the BTTS‑Yes market as the clearest edge.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Lost 54.9% model probability

With Winslow United averaging 1.35 expected goals and Swindon Supermarine averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Winslow United 1.35, Swindon Supermarine 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Winslow United 1.35 + Swindon Supermarine 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Winslow United 1.35 + Swindon Supermarine 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Winslow United at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Swindon Supermarine at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Winslow United expected goals

1.35

Swindon Supermarine expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

Winslow United

WLDLL

Winslow United’s recent league run includes a 2‑1 win over Newport Pagnell Town at home and a 1‑2 loss away to Risborough Rangers, showing they can score but also leak goals. The 1‑1 draw at Longlevens (away) and the 1‑3 home defeat to Longlevens underline a tendency to concede, reinforcing the likelihood of both sides finding the net in this cup tie.

Swindon Supermarine

Swindon Supermarine’s league form is not supplied, but their season‑long expected‑goals figure of 1.35 indicates a comparable scoring rate to Winslow United, meaning they are statistically primed to get on the scoresheet.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

FA Cup clash set for September 5

3 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Winslow United vs Swindon Supermarine?

Winslow United and Swindon Supermarine drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.

What was the final score of Winslow United vs Swindon Supermarine?

Winslow United 0-0 Swindon Supermarine (full time).

When was Winslow United vs Swindon Supermarine?

Winslow United played Swindon Supermarine on Sat 5 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.

More FA Cup This Week

See all FA Cup fixtures →

The parity in attacking potency and the history of open scorelines point to both sides hitting the back of the net.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups