Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow: Wisla Plock to win
Wisla Plock enter the clash with a 1.35 expected‑goals edge over Cracovia’s 0.3, and the model rates a 64.1% chance of a home win. Cracovia’s recent away form offers little threat, making the result the clearest market.
Both sides come in with contrasting recent runs: Wisla Plock have slipped to three losses in their last five, while Cracovia have collected two wins from the same span. The disparity in expected goals underscores a clear advantage for the hosts.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns Wisla Plock a 64.1% chance of victory, reflecting their higher expected‑goals rating and Cracovia’s low away threat.
Show the maths
With Wisla Plock averaging 1.35 expected goals and Cracovia Krakow averaging 0.3, the model gives a 80.8% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 19.2% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 1.7 (Wisla Plock 1.35 + Cracovia Krakow 0.3) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 77.0% chance against 23.0% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Wisla Plock at 64.1%, the draw at 27.8%, and Cracovia Krakow at 8.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 25.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Wisla Plock
Wisla Plock’s recent form reads WDLLL, highlighted by a 2‑1 away win over Raków Częstochowa and a 0‑5 away drubbing by GKS Katowice. The win shows they can breach defenses, while the heavy loss underlines defensive frailties, reinforcing a win‑or‑lose outlook rather than a high‑scoring affair.
Cracovia Krakow
Cracovia Krakow’s DWWLL run includes a 2‑1 home win over Raków Częstochowa and a 3‑2 home victory versus Wieczysta Kraków, but recent away defeats to Radomiak Radom (1‑2) and a home loss to Gornik Zabrze (0‑1) indicate a dip in form, supporting the expectation of limited scoring threat.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings Wisla Plock have won twice (1‑2 on 14 Mar 2026 and 1‑0 on 11 Nov 2022) and lost three times, including a 3‑0 defeat on 27 May 2023, suggesting a slight edge for the hosts but not a dominant trend.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | Cracovia Krakow 1-2 Wisla Plock | Ekstraklasa |
| 4 Dec 2025 | Wisla Plock 0-0 Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa |
| 27 May 2023 | Cracovia Krakow 3-0 Wisla Plock | Ekstraklasa |
| 11 Nov 2022 | Wisla Plock 1-0 Cracovia Krakow | Ekstraklasa |
| 13 May 2022 | Cracovia Krakow 3-0 Wisla Plock | Ekstraklasa |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Wisla Plock won 3-1. Our pre-match pick was Wisla Plock to win.
What was the final score of Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Wisla Plock 3-1 Cracovia Krakow (full time).
When was Wisla Plock vs Cracovia Krakow?
Wisla Plock played Cracovia Krakow on Sun 13 Sep · 11:15 BST in the Ekstraklasa at Orlen Stadion.
More Ekstraklasa This Week
See all Ekstraklasa fixtures →With the statistical gap and the model’s strong win probability, the result is the most decisive read for this fixture.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
