Witham Town vs St Albans City: Witham Town to win
Witham Town head into the FA Cup tie with a 3.0 expected‑goals mark, while St Albans City sit at 2.0. The model rates the home side’s win probability at 58.1% and the goal flood at over 2.5 goals at 87.1%.
Both clubs arrive from very limited recent league data, but the numbers paint a clear picture of an open encounter. Witham Town’s single recorded league win was a 3‑2 thriller at home, and St Albans City have shown defensive solidity away, conceding none in their last outing.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns Witham Town a 58.1% chance of victory, driven by their superior expected‑goals rating and home advantage.
Show the maths
With Witham Town averaging 3.0 expected goals and St Albans City averaging 2.0, the model gives a 81.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 18.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 5.0 (Witham Town 3.0 + St Albans City 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 87.1% chance against 12.9% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Witham Town at 58.1%, the draw at 16.8%, and St Albans City at 24.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-1 at 6.1% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Witham Town
Witham Town’s recent league form shows a 3‑2 home win over Stotfold, indicating they can both score and concede. That single victory, combined with a season‑long home goals‑for average of 3.0, suggests the hosts have the firepower to secure a win in this cup tie.
St Albans City
St Albans City recorded a 0‑0 draw at home against Hashtag United and followed it with a 2‑0 away victory over the same side. While the clean sheet demonstrates defensive resilience, the lack of goals in the draw hints at limited offensive output, which weakens their case for an upset here.
Head-to-Head
The only recent head‑to‑head meeting in October 2013 ended 0‑3 to St Albans City, a result that favours the visitors but is too dated to outweigh the current expected‑goals disparity.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Oct 2013 | Witham Town 0-3 St Albans City | FA Trophy |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Witham Town vs St Albans City?
Witham Town to win. The model assigns Witham Town a 58.1% chance of victory, driven by their superior expected‑goals rating and home advantage.
What does the model give Witham Town vs St Albans City?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Witham Town a 58.1% chance, the draw 16.8%, and St Albans City 24.7% to win.
When is Witham Town vs St Albans City?
Witham Town play St Albans City on Sat 19 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →Given the clear edge in win probability and the firepower on display, the safest bet is to back the hosts to take all three points.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
