Worksop Town vs AFC Telford United: Worksop Town to win
Worksop Town and AFC Telford United both sit on a season‑average of 1.35 expected goals, but the model gives the home side a 37.1% chance of winning versus a 25.8% draw probability. The numbers point to a modest edge for Worksop in this FA Cup tie.
Both clubs entered the cup after a single recent league draw – Worksop Town held AFC Telford United 2‑2 away, while Telford drew 2‑2 at home against Worksop. With no recent wins to lean on, the fixture promises a tight tactical battle.
Robbo's Verdict
The model’s 37.1% win probability for Worksop, combined with their recent head‑to‑head success, makes a home victory the most supported outcome.
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With Worksop Town averaging 1.35 expected goals and AFC Telford United averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Worksop Town 1.35 + AFC Telford United 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Worksop Town at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and AFC Telford United at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Worksop Town
Worksop Town’s last league result was a 2‑2 draw away at AFC Telford United, showing they can match Telford but struggled to take the lead. That inability to convert draws into wins underlines the modest win probability the model assigns to the hosts.
AFC Telford United
AFC Telford United’s most recent league outing was a 2‑2 home draw against Worksop Town, indicating they can score but also concede equally. This balanced performance supports the model’s equal win odds for the visitors but leaves them without a clear momentum edge.
Head-to-Head
In the four most recent meetings, Worksop won 2‑1 and 3‑1, Telford won 2‑1, and the latest game ended 2‑2, giving Worksop a slight historical advantage that backs the win pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | AFC Telford United 2-2 Worksop Town | FA Cup |
| 15 Aug 2026 | Worksop Town 2-1 AFC Telford United | National League - North |
| 7 Feb 2026 | Worksop Town 3-1 AFC Telford United | National League - North |
| 25 Oct 2025 | AFC Telford United 2-1 Worksop Town | National League - North |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Worksop Town vs AFC Telford United?
Worksop Town won 5-2. Our pre-match pick was Worksop Town to win.
What was the final score of Worksop Town vs AFC Telford United?
Worksop Town 5-2 AFC Telford United (full time).
When was Worksop Town vs AFC Telford United?
Worksop Town played AFC Telford United on Tue 22 Sep · 19:45 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →Given Worksop's slightly higher win probability and a recent record that includes two convincing victories over Telford, the model’s edge leans toward a home win.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
