Worksop Town vs United of Manchester: Worksop Town to win
Both sides boast identical expected‑goal figures (5.0) and a model‑predicted 86.6% chance of more than 2.5 goals, setting up a fireworks FA Cup tie.
Worksop Town host United of Manchester in the early round of the FA Cup, a clash where recent form and head‑to‑head suggest the home side may have the edge despite identical scoring rates.
Robbo's Verdict
The home side’s superior defensive record at home (2.0 goals against) combined with a recent 5‑2 win gives them a slight edge over United of Manchester’s 1.0 away concession rate.
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With Worksop Town averaging 5.0 expected goals and United of Manchester averaging 5.0, the model gives a 85.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 14.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 10.0 (Worksop Town 5.0 + United of Manchester 5.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 86.6% chance against 13.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Worksop Town at 37.1%, the draw at 12.6%, and United of Manchester at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 4-4 at 3.1% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Worksop Town
Worksop Town’s last five league results read D‑W, highlighted by a 2‑2 draw away at AFC Telford United and a dominant 5‑2 home win over the same side. The draw shows they can absorb pressure, while the 5‑2 win proves they can break through heavily, reinforcing the view that they can outscore United in this tie.
United of Manchester
United of Manchester have posted two consecutive wins, a 5‑1 away victory at Garforth Town and a 4‑1 home triumph over Ossett United. Both matches feature four or more goals scored, underscoring United’s offensive potency but also exposing a defensive vulnerability that Worksop could exploit.
Head-to-Head
Recent head‑to‑head meetings favor Worksop, with a 2‑0 win on 26 October and a 1‑0 win on 13 August, suggesting a slight historical edge for the home side.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 21 Dec 2024 | Worksop Town 1-1 United of Manchester | Non League Premier - Northern |
| 26 Oct 2024 | Worksop Town 2-0 United of Manchester | FA Trophy |
| 13 Aug 2024 | United of Manchester 0-1 Worksop Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| 16 Dec 2023 | Worksop Town 4-0 United of Manchester | Non League Premier - Northern |
| 12 Aug 2023 | United of Manchester 3-0 Worksop Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Worksop Town vs United of Manchester?
Worksop Town to win. The home side’s superior defensive record at home (2.0 goals against) combined with a recent 5‑2 win gives them a slight edge over United of Manchester’s 1.0 away concession rate.
What does the model give Worksop Town vs United of Manchester?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Worksop Town a 37.1% chance, the draw 12.6%, and United of Manchester 37.1% to win.
When is Worksop Town vs United of Manchester?
Worksop Town play United of Manchester on Sat 3 Oct · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →With both teams averaging five goals per match and a model‑derived 86.6% probability of the game going over 2.5 goals, the decisive factor becomes which side can translate that firepower into a win.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
