Yate Town vs Chippenham Town: Over 2.5 goals
Both sides boast an identical expected‑goals tally of 3.0, and the model predicts a 93 % chance of more than 2.5 goals. Expect a goal‑rich FA Cup tie at Yate Town.
Yate Town host Chippenham Town in the early round of the FA Cup, and both clubs have been prolific in front of goal this season. With each side averaging three goals per match, the fixture is primed for an open showdown.
Robbo's Verdict
The model assigns a 93 % chance to over 2.5 goals, reflecting the identical 3.0 expected‑goals figures and strong attacking averages of both teams.
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With Yate Town averaging 3.0 expected goals and Chippenham Town averaging 3.0, the model gives a 89.6% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 10.4% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 6.0 (Yate Town 3.0 + Chippenham Town 3.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 93.0% chance against 7.0% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Yate Town at 41.3%, the draw at 16.7%, and Chippenham Town at 41.3% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-2 at 5.0% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Yate Town
Yate Town’s recent form includes a 3‑0 home win over Devizes Town, showing they can dominate and keep a clean sheet. That performance underlines their ability to both score and defend, supporting the expectation of multiple goals in this tie.
Chippenham Town
Chippenham Town’s latest league results feature a 1‑1 draw at home against Havant & Wville followed by a 3‑1 away win over the same side. The win, with three goals scored on the road, demonstrates their capacity to find the net away from home, reinforcing the over‑2.5 goal outlook.
Head-to-Head
Head‑to‑head meetings have been tight: a 1‑1 draw in 2026 and a 0‑1 loss in 2023 for Yate Town, with the 2013 encounter ending 3‑2 to Yate. The recent draws suggest both sides can score, aligning with the over‑goal prediction.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 11 Aug 2026 | Chippenham Town 1-1 Yate Town | Non League Premier - Southern South |
| 10 Jul 2023 | Yate Town 0-1 Chippenham Town | Friendlies Clubs |
| 14 Sep 2013 | Yate Town 3-2 Chippenham Town | FA Cup |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Yate Town vs Chippenham Town?
Yate Town and Chippenham Town drew 0-0. Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals.
What was the final score of Yate Town vs Chippenham Town?
Yate Town 0-0 Chippenham Town (full time).
When was Yate Town vs Chippenham Town?
Yate Town played Chippenham Town on Fri 18 Sep · 19:45 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.
More FA Cup This Week
See all FA Cup fixtures →Given the mirrored attacking output and the model’s clear over‑2.5 goal bias, the safest read is that the match will produce plenty of goals.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
