Yate Town vs Devizes Town preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

FA Cup · Round of 16 FT · Yate Town 3-0 Devizes Town TBC

Yate Town vs Devizes Town: Both teams to score - Yes

Yate Town host Devizes Town in the FA Cup with identical expected goals of 1.35 each, and the model assigns an equal 37.1% chance to both sides for a win.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Both teams to score - Yes Lost

Solid · BTTS likelihood

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Lost

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

50.6% model probability

Both clubs enter this first‑round tie with no recent league form data supplied, meaning the only measurable insight comes from season‑long scoring rates and the model’s probability outputs.

Robbo's Verdict

Solid

Both teams to score - Yes Lost Solid lean Solid · BTTS likelihood

Both Yate Town and Devizes Town are expected to score, as reflected by the model’s 54.9% BTTS probability.

Show the maths

The model assigns each team an expected‑goals value of 1.35, indicating comparable attacking output. When these xG figures are fed into the BTTS algorithm, they produce a 54.9% chance of both sides scoring. This probability exceeds the 45.1% chance of a clean‑sheet outcome, making the BTTS‑Yes market the clearest one‑sided read.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Lost 54.9% model probability

With Yate Town averaging 1.35 expected goals and Devizes Town averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Yate Town 1.35, Devizes Town 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Yate Town 1.35 + Devizes Town 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Yate Town 1.35 + Devizes Town 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Yate Town at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Devizes Town at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Yate Town expected goals

1.35

Devizes Town expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Match listed on major broadcasters

2 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Yate Town vs Devizes Town?

Yate Town won 3-0. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.

What was the final score of Yate Town vs Devizes Town?

Yate Town 3-0 Devizes Town (full time).

When was Yate Town vs Devizes Town?

Yate Town played Devizes Town on Sat 5 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.

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Given the clear edge in the Both‑Teams‑to‑Score metric, the logical read is that both sides will find the net at least once.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups