Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill preview by Robbo for TerraceBet

FA Cup · Round of 16 FT · Yaxley 1-1 Buckhurst Hill TBC

Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill: Both teams to score - No

Yaxley and Buckhurst Hill sit on identical expected‑goals of 1.35, but the model rates the likelihood of a clean sheet for both sides at just under half.

Robbo — Lead Predictions Writer, Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Robbo's Take

Headline Pick

Both teams to score - No Lost

Lean · Slight edge

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Won

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost

50.6% model probability

Both clubs arrive with recent league form that offers little reassurance – Yaxley’s last five league outings read LWLL, while Buckhurst Hill have managed only a single win in their previous five, finishing DWLLL.

Robbo's Verdict

Lean

Both teams to score - No Lost Solid lean Lean · Slight edge

The model assigns just 45.1% to a no‑goal‑by‑both‑teams outcome, making the ‘No’ option the clearer side of the split.

Show the maths

Both sides average 1.35 expected goals, which the model converts into a 54.9% chance both will score. Subtracting that from 100% gives a 45.1% probability of at least one side being shut out. Because the BTTS‑No probability is the lower of the two, the model flags it as the most one‑sided outcome. The match‑result split (37.1% each) and the draw odds (25.8%) further underline that the goal‑line is the decisive factor here.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Won 54.9% model probability

With Yaxley averaging 1.35 expected goals and Buckhurst Hill averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Yaxley 1.35, Buckhurst Hill 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Lost 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Yaxley 1.35 + Buckhurst Hill 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Yaxley 1.35 + Buckhurst Hill 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Yaxley at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Buckhurst Hill at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Yaxley expected goals

1.35

Buckhurst Hill expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

Yaxley

LWLL

Yaxley’s recent league run includes a 2‑1 win over Godmanchester Rovers (H) and a 1‑3 loss to Grantham Town (H). The win shows they can create chances, but the two defeats highlight a fragile defence, supporting the view that they may struggle to score against Buckhurst Hill.

Buckhurst Hill

DWLLL

Buckhurst Hill’s five‑game stretch features a 2‑1 victory at Brantham Athletic (A) and a heavy 0‑5 loss to Maldon & Tiptree (A). The win proves they can find the net, yet the three consecutive losses, especially the 1‑4 defeat, suggest they are vulnerable to being kept clean.

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Talking Points · Deano

Yaxley secured a home replay win

2 talking points · 1 min read →

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill?

Yaxley and Buckhurst Hill drew 1-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - No.

What was the final score of Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill?

Yaxley 1-1 Buckhurst Hill (full time).

When was Yaxley vs Buckhurst Hill?

Yaxley played Buckhurst Hill on Sat 5 Sep · 15:00 BST in the FA Cup at TBC.

More FA Cup This Week

See all FA Cup fixtures →

Given the modest scoring rates and the relatively low BTTS probability, the safest read is that at least one side will fail to find the net.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Robbo

Lead Predictions Writer, TerraceBet — Big 5 Europe, UEFA competitions & the major domestic cups