Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock: Zaglebie Lubin to win
Zaglebie Lubin average 1.5 expected goals at home while Wisla Plock manage only 1.0 away, giving the hosts a clear statistical edge. The model rates a Zaglebie win at 48.8% versus a 25.2% chance for the visitors.
Both sides arrive with contrasting recent runs – Lubin have picked up two wins in their last five, while Plock have endured three consecutive defeats before a solitary draw. This form gap sets the tone for a contest where the home side will look to re‑assert its solidity.
Lars's Verdict
The home side’s superior expected goals and defensive record, together with a 48.8% win probability in the model, make a Lubin victory the most likely outcome.
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With Zaglebie Lubin averaging 1.5 expected goals and Wisla Plock averaging 1.0, the model gives a 50.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Zaglebie Lubin 1.5 + Wisla Plock 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Zaglebie Lubin at 48.8%, the draw at 26.0%, and Wisla Plock at 25.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Zaglebie Lubin
Lubin’s recent five include a 2‑1 home win over Slask Wroclaw and another 2‑1 home victory against GKS Katowice, both demonstrating their ability to secure three points on their own turf. The two intervening draws (0‑0 away at Radomiak and 0‑0 home vs Pogon) underline defensive resilience, reinforcing the expectation that Lubin can both score and keep a clean sheet, which supports a home win.
Wisla Plock
Plock have suffered three straight losses, highlighted by a 0‑5 drubbing away at GKS Katowice and a 0‑2 defeat at home to Korona Kielce, showing vulnerability in both attack and defence. Their recent 3‑1 home win over Cracovia Krakow offers a glimpse of firepower, but the prior heavy defeats lower confidence in their ability to overturn Lubin’s advantage.
Head-to-Head
In the latest head‑to‑head, Lubin beat Plock 2‑0 on 2 March 2026, while the previous five meetings feature three wins for Lubin and two for Plock, indicating a historical tilt toward the hosts.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 2 Mar 2026 | Zaglebie Lubin 2-0 Wisla Plock | Ekstraklasa |
| 25 Aug 2025 | Wisla Plock 2-1 Zaglebie Lubin | Ekstraklasa |
| 8 Apr 2023 | Wisla Plock 2-0 Zaglebie Lubin | Ekstraklasa |
| 18 Sep 2022 | Zaglebie Lubin 2-1 Wisla Plock | Ekstraklasa |
| 18 Feb 2022 | Zaglebie Lubin 3-1 Wisla Plock | Ekstraklasa |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock?
Wisla Plock won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Zaglebie Lubin to win.
What was the final score of Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock?
Zaglebie Lubin 0-2 Wisla Plock (full time).
When was Zaglebie Lubin vs Wisla Plock?
Zaglebie Lubin played Wisla Plock on Sun 20 Sep · 13:45 BST in the Ekstraklasa at KGHM Zaglebie Arena.
More Ekstraklasa This Week
See all Ekstraklasa fixtures →All signs point to Lubin capitalising on their home advantage and superior defensive metrics to edge out Plock.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
