Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi: Over 2.5 goals
Zulte Waregem average three goals at home while Charleroi score two on the road, and the model predicts an 87 % chance of over 2.5 goals. The numbers point to a high‑scoring encounter.
Both sides have been efficient in front of goal lately – Waregem at home and Charleroi away – making this fixture a potential goal fest. Their recent form shows they can both find the net consistently, setting the stage for plenty of action.
Lars's Verdict
The combined expected‑goals rating of five and an 87 % over‑2.5 probability make a high‑scoring outcome the most likely scenario.
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With Zulte Waregem averaging 3.0 expected goals and Charleroi averaging 2.0, the model gives a 81.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 18.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 5.0 (Zulte Waregem 3.0 + Charleroi 2.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 87.1% chance against 12.9% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Zulte Waregem at 58.1%, the draw at 16.8%, and Charleroi at 24.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-1 at 6.1% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Zulte Waregem
Waregem’s last five league results read W‑D‑W‑D‑W, highlighted by a 4‑0 home thrashing of SK Beveren and a 2‑0 away win at Kortrijk. Those dominant displays, especially the clean‑sheet victory against Beveren, demonstrate a side capable of scoring multiple goals while keeping opponents at bay – a pattern that supports a high‑scoring outcome.
Charleroi
Charleroi have been on a roll with four wins and a single loss, notably a 3‑1 home win over OH Leuven and a 2‑0 home victory versus KV Mechelen. Their ability to net three goals against Leuven shows a potent attack that, when combined with Waregem’s firepower, points toward a match with several goals.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, three have produced three or more goals – including a 3‑2 win for Charleroi in 2023 – underscoring a history of open games that aligns with the over‑2.5 expectation.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar 2026 | Zulte Waregem 1-0 Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
| 20 Sep 2025 | Charleroi 1-2 Zulte Waregem | Jupiler Pro League |
| 13 Jul 2024 | Charleroi 2-0 Zulte Waregem | Friendlies Clubs |
| 8 Apr 2023 | Charleroi 3-2 Zulte Waregem | Jupiler Pro League |
| 21 Aug 2022 | Zulte Waregem 1-3 Charleroi | Jupiler Pro League |
Team News
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Over 2.5 goals. The combined expected‑goals rating of five and an 87 % over‑2.5 probability make a high‑scoring outcome the most likely scenario.
What does the model give Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Zulte Waregem a 58.1% chance, the draw 16.8%, and Charleroi 24.7% to win.
When is Zulte Waregem vs Charleroi?
Zulte Waregem play Charleroi on Sun 13 Sep · 17:30 BST in the Belgian Pro League at Elindus Arena.
More Belgian Pro League This Week
See all Belgian Pro League fixtures →With both teams primed to attack and the statistical odds heavily tilted toward a goal‑rich game, the safest wager aligns with the model’s strongest signal.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
