Zulte Waregem vs Genk preview by Lars for TerraceBet

Belgian Pro League · Regular Season - 1 FT · Zulte Waregem 2-1 Genk Elindus Arena

Zulte Waregem vs Genk: Both teams to score - Yes

Zulte Waregem host Genk in a Belgian Pro League clash where both sides sit on identical expected‑goal figures of 1.35. The model rates the match as a toss‑up result but leans heavily toward both teams finding the net.

Lars — European Football Writer, Continental European leagues from the Eredivisie to the Superliga

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Lars's Take

Headline Pick

Both teams to score - Yes Won

Solid · BTTS Edge

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Won

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

50.6% model probability

Both clubs arrive with contrasting recent form – Zulte Waregem fresh off two narrow victories, while Genk have stumbled to a goalless draw. The game tests whether Zulte can sustain their attacking impulse against a Genk side that has struggled to convert chances lately.

Lars's Verdict

Solid

Both teams to score - Yes Won Solid lean Solid · BTTS Edge

The model assigns a 54.9% chance that both sides will hit the net, outpacing the 45.1% chance of a clean sheet, making the BTTS market the most decisive read.

Show the maths

Both clubs carry an expected‑goal figure of 1.35, meaning each is statistically likely to score at least once. The model translates that parity into a BTTS probability just above the 50% mark (54.9%). The slight advantage over a clean‑sheet outcome (45.1%) arises from the combination of Zulte’s recent high‑scoring wins and Genk’s need to rebound from a goalless draw, pushing the overall likelihood of both teams scoring above even odds.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Won 54.9% model probability

With Zulte Waregem averaging 1.35 expected goals and Genk averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Zulte Waregem 1.35, Genk 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Zulte Waregem 1.35 + Genk 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Zulte Waregem 1.35 + Genk 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Zulte Waregem at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Genk at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Zulte Waregem expected goals

1.35

Genk expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

Zulte Waregem

Zulte Waregem have recorded back‑to‑back wins: a 3‑2 away triumph over Cercle Brugge and a 2‑1 home victory against Dender. Those results demonstrate a clear ability to find the net, which directly supports the expectation that they will score in this fixture.

Genk

Genk’s most recent league outing was a 0‑0 draw away at Gent, indicating a current lack of firepower. However, the need to break this deadlock after a goalless game reinforces the probability that they will push forward and score against Zulte.

Head-to-Head

In the last five meetings Genk have won four times (including a 3‑2 win in 2025) while Zulte Waregem have only one win (2‑1 in January 2026), a record that still sees both sides scoring in three of those matches, aligning with the BTTS outlook.

Date	Result	Competition
17 Jan 2026	Zulte Waregem 2-1 Genk	Jupiler Pro League
31 Aug 2025	Genk 3-2 Zulte Waregem	Jupiler Pro League
14 Jan 2023	Genk 1-0 Zulte Waregem	Jupiler Pro League
14 Aug 2022	Zulte Waregem 1-4 Genk	Jupiler Pro League
6 Feb 2022	Genk 2-0 Zulte Waregem	Jupiler Pro League

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Zulte Waregem vs Genk?

Zulte Waregem won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score - Yes.

What was the final score of Zulte Waregem vs Genk?

Zulte Waregem 2-1 Genk (full time).

When was Zulte Waregem vs Genk?

Zulte Waregem played Genk on Sun 9 Aug · 15:00 BST in the Belgian Pro League at Elindus Arena.

More Belgian Pro League This Week

See all Belgian Pro League fixtures →

With both sides averaging the same xG and a BTTS probability of 54.9%, the data points to a game where the attacking instincts of each team are likely to override recent scoring droughts.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Lars

European Football Writer, TerraceBet — Continental European leagues from the Eredivisie to the Superliga