Aberdeen vs Hearts preview by Hamish for TerraceBet

Scottish Premiership · Regular Season - 1 FT · Aberdeen 2-1 Hearts Pittodrie Stadium

Aberdeen vs Hearts: No clear edge

Aberdeen host Hearts in a clash where the only market signal is a 3.7 price on the draw, leaving little to exploit.

Hamish — UK & Ireland Writer, Scottish Premiership & League of Ireland

Stats-first, no filler, model-backed picks

Hamish's Take

Headline Pick

No clear edge Void

Lean · No edge

Both Teams to Score

BTTS — Yes Won

54.9% model probability

Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won

50.6% model probability

Both clubs sit in the middle of the table, but the odds market offers no clear direction beyond a relatively generous draw price.

Hamish's Verdict

Lean

No clear edge Void Lean · No edge

The sole market figure – a draw at 3.7 – does not translate into a measurable advantage for any other selection.

Show the maths

Our model can only reference the draw odds of 3.7. Converting that price to implied probability gives roughly 27%. Without an alternative model probability for any other market, we cannot demonstrate a probability gap that would constitute value. Consequently, no market shows a statistical edge over the price offered.

Pick 2 · Both Teams to Score

Both Teams to Score — Yes Won 54.9% model probability

With Aberdeen averaging 1.35 expected goals and Hearts averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.

Show the maths

BTTS probability is derived from each side's expected goals (Aberdeen 1.35, Hearts 1.35) run through the same Poisson goal-expectancy model used for the match result: 54.9% of simulated outcomes have both teams scoring at least once, versus 45.1% where at least one side is shut out.

Pick 3 · Total Goals

Over 2.5 Goals Won 50.6% model probability

Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Aberdeen 1.35 + Hearts 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.

Show the maths

Total goals probability comes from the same Poisson model summing both teams' expected goals (Aberdeen 1.35 + Hearts 1.35 = 2.7 combined): 50.6% of simulated outcomes finish with 3 or more goals, versus 49.4% finishing with 2 or fewer.

Match Result Model

Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Aberdeen at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Hearts at 37.1% to win.

Most Likely Scoreline

The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.

The Numbers Behind the Headline

Aberdeen expected goals

1.35

Hearts expected goals

1.35

Model BTTS probability

54.9%

Most likely scorelines

11-1

12.2%

20-1

9.1%

31-0

9.1%

Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.

Form Guide — Last 5

Aberdeen

No recent form data is supplied for Aberdeen, so we cannot cite specific results or infer any trend that would affect a betting decision.

Hearts

WDWL

Similarly, Hearts’ recent results are not provided, leaving us without concrete match‑by‑match evidence to weight a pick.

Head-to-Head

Head‑to‑head details are absent, so there is no historical scoreline to influence the analysis.

Date	Result	Competition
28 Feb 2026	Heart Of Midlothian 1-0 Aberdeen	Premiership
23 Nov 2025	Aberdeen 1-0 Heart Of Midlothian	Premiership
4 Aug 2025	Heart Of Midlothian 2-0 Aberdeen	Premiership
19 Apr 2025	Heart Of Midlothian 1-2 Aberdeen	FA Cup
12 Jan 2025	Aberdeen 0-0 Heart Of Midlothian	Premiership

Team News (Pregame)

No notable injury concerns were on record for either side heading into this match.

Frequently Asked Questions

Who won Aberdeen vs Hearts?

Aberdeen won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was No clear edge.

What was the final score of Aberdeen vs Hearts?

Aberdeen 2-1 Hearts (full time).

When was Aberdeen vs Hearts?

Aberdeen played Hearts on Sat 1 Aug · 17:30 BST in the Scottish Premiership at Pittodrie Stadium.

More Scottish Premiership This Week

See all Scottish Premiership fixtures →

Given the lack of statistical signals beyond the draw price, there is no compelling case to back a specific outcome.

Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org

Written by Hamish

UK & Ireland Writer, TerraceBet — Scottish Premiership & League of Ireland