St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock: No clear edge
St Johnstone host Kilmarnock in a match where both sides sit on identical expected‑goals of 1.35. The model rates the draw at 25.8% versus the market’s 28.6%, leaving no clear value pick.
Both clubs enter the opening day of the Scottish Premiership with a perfect statistical balance – each averaging 1.35 expected goals per game. The real question is whether the market has mis‑priced any outcome, especially the draw that currently sits at 3.5 odds.
Hamish's Verdict
The model’s draw likelihood (25.8%) falls short of the market’s implied 28.6%, and without other priced markets we cannot identify a value bet.
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With St Johnstone averaging 1.35 expected goals and Kilmarnock averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (St Johnstone 1.35 + Kilmarnock 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has St Johnstone at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Kilmarnock at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, each side has won twice and drawn once, with the most recent 2‑0 Kilmarnock win on 3 May 2025 indicating a slight recent edge for the visitors.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 3 May 2025 | ST Johnstone 0-2 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Kilmarnock 3-1 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 23 Nov 2024 | ST Johnstone 1-0 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
| 11 Aug 2024 | Kilmarnock 0-3 ST Johnstone | Premiership |
| 13 Apr 2024 | ST Johnstone 0-2 Kilmarnock | Premiership |
Team News (Pregame)
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
St Johnstone won 4-3. Our pre-match pick was No clear edge.
What was the final score of St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
St Johnstone 4-3 Kilmarnock (full time).
When was St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock?
St Johnstone played Kilmarnock on Sun 2 Aug · 14:00 BST in the Scottish Premiership at McDiarmid Park.
More Scottish Premiership This Week
See all Scottish Premiership fixtures →Given the identical xG figures, the model’s draw probability (25.8%) is lower than the market implied probability (28.6%). With no other odds supplied, there is simply no statistical edge to exploit.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
