ADO Den Haag vs Groningen: Both teams to score – Yes
ADO Den Haag host Groningen in a tightly balanced opener, with both sides posting identical expected goals of 1.35. The model rates the odds of both teams finding the net at 54.9%, the clearest edge of the available markets.
Both clubs enter the season with modest recent form – Den Haag coming off a 0‑2 loss to AZ, while Groningen have won three of their last four, including a 2‑1 win at Utrecht. The fixture offers a direct test of Groningen’s attacking consistency against a Den Haag side that has yet to score in its last five league outings.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 54.9% probability to both sides scoring, outpacing the 45.1% chance of a clean sheet, making BTTS the most supported outcome.
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With ADO Den Haag averaging 1.35 expected goals and Groningen averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (ADO Den Haag 1.35 + Groningen 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has ADO Den Haag at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Groningen at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
ADO Den Haag
Den Haag’s recent form is bleak, with a loss 0‑2 at AZ Alkmaar (away) as their only listed result, and a five‑game winless run overall. The lack of goals in that defeat underscores a struggle to find the net, which aligns with the model’s low xG but still leaves room for a goal against a side that has been scoring regularly. This form suggests Den Haag are unlikely to keep a clean sheet, supporting the BTTS pick.
Groningen
Groningen have been more decisive, recording wins 2‑1 over NEC Nijmegen (home), 2‑1 at Heracles (away), and 2‑1 against Utrecht (home), with only a 0‑2 loss at Ajax interrupting the run. Scoring in three consecutive matches demonstrates a consistent threat, indicating they are apt to score against Den Haag, bolstering the BTTS outlook.
Head-to-Head
In the most recent head‑to‑head, Groningen beat Den Haag 2‑0 on 29 March 2024, while the earlier 2023 encounter ended 1‑0 to Den Haag, showing a slight edge for Groningen but also that both sides have previously kept each other to low‑scoring affairs, which does not contradict the BTTS expectation.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar 2024 | ADO Den Haag 0-2 Groningen | Eerste Divisie |
| 15 Sep 2023 | Groningen 0-1 ADO Den Haag | Eerste Divisie |
| 26 Jan 2021 | Groningen 3-0 ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie |
| 20 Sep 2020 | ADO Den Haag 0-1 Groningen | Eredivisie |
| 3 May 2020 | Groningen None-None ADO Den Haag | Eredivisie |
Team News (Pregame)
ADO Den Haag: D. Barany (Inactive), C. Peupion (Knee Injury)
Groningen: M. Jeng (Leg Injury), S. Resink (Knee Injury), O. Zawada (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won ADO Den Haag vs Groningen?
Groningen won 4-1. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – Yes.
What was the final score of ADO Den Haag vs Groningen?
ADO Den Haag 1-4 Groningen (full time).
When was ADO Den Haag vs Groningen?
ADO Den Haag played Groningen on Sun 16 Aug · 11:15 BST in the Eredivisie at WerkTalent Stadion.
More Eredivisie This Week
See all Eredivisie fixtures →Given the comparable expected goals and the model’s strong BTTS signal, the most logical read is that both teams will put a goal on the board.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
