AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF: Both teams to score – Yes
AIK Stockholm host Hammarby FF in a clash where the model sees a 47.6% chance of both sides finding the net. The Swedes' expected‑goals split (1.0 vs 1.4) underpins a game with plenty of firepower.
Both clubs come in with contrasting recent runs – AIK have a mixed bag of results while Hammarby have been on a scoring tear. The fixture pits AIK's modest home attack against Hammarby’s potent away line, setting up a clear test of defensive resilience.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns a 47.6% chance of both sides scoring, supported by AIK’s 1.0 home xG and Hammarby’s 1.4 away xG together with recent high‑scoring outings.
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With AIK Stockholm averaging 1.0 expected goals and Hammarby FF averaging 1.4, the model gives a 52.4% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 47.6% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.4 (AIK Stockholm 1.0 + Hammarby FF 1.4) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 57.0% chance against 43.0% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has AIK Stockholm at 26.9%, the draw at 27.0%, and Hammarby FF at 46.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-1 at 12.7% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
AIK Stockholm
AIK’s last five league results are W‑D‑L‑W‑W, highlighted by a 2‑0 home win over Gais and a 4‑3 away victory at Orgryte IS. The win against Gais shows they can score cleanly, while the high‑scoring win at Orgryte demonstrates an ability to find the net even when conceding, bolstering the case for them scoring against Hammarby.
Hammarby FF
Hammarby’s recent form reads W‑D‑W‑W‑W, including a 4‑0 home thrashing of Degerfors IF and a 4‑0 away demolition of Kalmar FF. Both the Degerfors and Kalmar results feature four goals without reply, evidencing a strong away scoring trend that supports a BTTS outcome.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings the sides have split wins (AIK 2, Hammarby 2) and drawn once, with the most recent 2026‑05‑24 match ending 2‑1 to AIK. The balanced head‑to‑head record shows neither side dominates, which aligns with a high probability of both teams scoring.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 24 May 2026 | Hammarby FF 1-2 AIK Stockholm | Allsvenskan |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Hammarby FF 2-1 AIK Stockholm | Allsvenskan |
| 18 May 2025 | AIK Stockholm 0-0 Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan |
| 29 Sep 2024 | AIK Stockholm 1-0 Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan |
| 19 May 2024 | Hammarby FF 2-1 AIK Stockholm | Allsvenskan |
Team News (Pregame)
AIK Stockholm: T. Ayari (Calf Injury), I. Cisse (Ankle Injury), E. Edh (Hamstring Injury), M. Ellingsen (Injury)
Hammarby FF: F. Adjei (Yellow Cards), S. Kone (Knee Injury), V. Eriksson (Yellow Cards), H. Skoglund (Red Card)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF?
AIK Stockholm won 3-2. Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – Yes.
What was the final score of AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF?
AIK Stockholm 3-2 Hammarby FF (full time).
When was AIK Stockholm vs Hammarby FF?
AIK Stockholm played Hammarby FF on Sun 30 Aug · 13:00 BST in the Allsvenskan at Strawberry Arena.
More Allsvenskan This Week
See all Allsvenskan fixtures →Given the goal averages and the recent scoring form of both sides, the model’s BTTS probability of 47.6% stands out as the most decisive edge.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
