IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF: Degerfors IF to win
Degerfors IF carries a clear value edge at 4.9 odds despite being the underdog. Our model puts their win probability at 34.6%, well above the market's 20.4% implied chance.
IFK Göteborg host a struggling Degerfors side on the back of contrasting recent form. Göteborg sit on a mixed run while Degerfors have failed to find the net in four of their last five league outings.
Lars's Verdict
Back Degerfors IF at 4.9 as the model shows a 34.6% chance of victory versus the market’s 20.4% implied probability.
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With IFK Goteborg averaging 1.0 expected goals and Degerfors IF averaging 1.0, the model gives a 60.0% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 40.0% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.0 (IFK Goteborg 1.0 + Degerfors IF 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 67.7% chance against 32.3% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has IFK Goteborg at 34.6%, the draw at 30.9%, and Degerfors IF at 34.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 13.5% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
IFK Goteborg
Göteborg’s last five league games read W‑L‑L‑W‑L, highlighted by a 0‑4 loss at Malmö and a 1‑4 defeat at Sirius, indicating defensive vulnerability. Their recent 2‑1 home win over Brommapojkarna shows they can still score, but the inconsistency underlines why a surprise result is plausible.
Degerfors IF
Degerfors have managed only a single point from a draw (2‑2 vs Brommapojkarna) and endured four straight defeats, including a 0‑4 loss at Hammarby. Their inability to score—only two goals in five matches—means any win will likely be low‑scoring, aligning with the model’s equal expected‑goals projection.
Head-to-Head
Historically Göteborg dominate, winning five straight meetings (most recent 3‑1 on 8 Mar 2026), but recent form suggests the gap has narrowed, supporting the model’s elevated upset probability.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 8 Mar 2026 | IFK Goteborg 3-1 Degerfors IF | Svenska Cupen |
| 4 Aug 2025 | IFK Goteborg 3-0 Degerfors IF | Allsvenskan |
| 19 May 2025 | Degerfors IF 1-3 IFK Goteborg | Allsvenskan |
| 19 Aug 2023 | Degerfors IF 1-2 IFK Goteborg | Allsvenskan |
| 4 May 2023 | IFK Goteborg 6-0 Degerfors IF | Allsvenskan |
Team News (Pregame)
IFK Goteborg: G. Ersoy (Muscle Injury), T. Heintz (Yellow Cards), D. Kruse (Yellow Cards), A. Mucolli (Knee Injury)
Degerfors IF: O. Leonardsson (Inactive), E. Lindell (Inactive), S. Ohlsson (Yellow Cards), J. Pikkarainen (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
IFK Goteborg won 2-0. Our pre-match pick was Degerfors IF to win.
What was the final score of IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
IFK Goteborg 2-0 Degerfors IF (full time).
When was IFK Goteborg vs Degerfors IF?
IFK Goteborg played Degerfors IF on Sun 2 Aug · 13:00 BST in the Allsvenskan at Gamla Ullevi.
More Allsvenskan This Week
See all Allsvenskan fixtures →The model’s 34.6% win probability for Degerfors starkly outpaces the 20.4% market implied odds, indicating a genuine value opportunity for bettors.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
