Ajax vs Willem II: Ajax to win
Ajax's 1.5 expected goals meet Willem II's 1.0 in a clash where the model rates Ajax's win chance just under 50 %. The recent form and head‑to‑head record both point to an Ajax advantage.
Both sides arrive with contrasting recent runs – Ajax have mixed results but still carry a win in their last five, while Willem II have struggled to find the net in four of their last five outings. The fixture pits Ajax's home scoring rate of 1.5 against Willem II's away average of 1.0, setting the statistical backdrop for the match.
Lars's Verdict
The model gives Ajax a 48.8 % chance of victory, the highest probability among the three outcomes, and the statistical profile backs that edge.
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With Ajax averaging 1.5 expected goals and Willem II averaging 1.0, the model gives a 50.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 49.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 2.5 (Ajax 1.5 + Willem II 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 54.4% chance against 45.6% for Over.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Ajax at 48.8%, the draw at 26.0%, and Willem II at 25.2% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 12.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Ajax
Ajax’s last five league games read WDWL, highlighted by a 4‑0 away win over Telstar and a 2‑2 home draw with Heerenveen. The big win against Telstar shows Ajax can produce clean sheets and multiple goals, which supports the view that they have the firepower to secure a win here.
Willem II
Willem II’s recent form of LLDL includes a 1‑4 loss away at GO Ahead Eagles and a 0‑3 home defeat to Excelsior, indicating defensive frailty and limited scoring. The two heavy defeats underline their vulnerability, reinforcing the expectation that they will struggle to win this match.
Head-to-Head
Ajax have won all five recent meetings – 2‑1 in April 2025, 1‑0 in October 2024, 1‑0 in February 2022, 5‑0 in December 2021 and 3‑1 in January 2021 – a perfect record that strongly backs the win pick.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 13 Apr 2025 | Willem II 1-2 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| 27 Oct 2024 | Ajax 1-0 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| 19 Feb 2022 | Willem II 0-1 Ajax | Eredivisie |
| 2 Dec 2021 | Ajax 5-0 Willem II | Eredivisie |
| 28 Jan 2021 | Ajax 3-1 Willem II | Eredivisie |
Team News
Ajax: S. Adingra (Foot Injury), D. Blind (Injury), R. Bounida (Injury), M. Carrizo (Inactive)
Willem II: A. Culum (Foot Injury), T. Didillon Hodl (Hamstring Injury), A. Lachkar (Groin Injury), J. Schuurman (Knock)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Ajax vs Willem II?
Ajax to win. The model gives Ajax a 48.8 % chance of victory, the highest probability among the three outcomes, and the statistical profile backs that edge.
What does the model give Ajax vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Ajax a 48.8% chance, the draw 26.0%, and Willem II 25.2% to win.
When is Ajax vs Willem II?
Ajax play Willem II on Tue 15 Sep · 19:00 BST in the Eredivisie at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Are there any injury concerns for Ajax vs Willem II?
Ajax: S. Adingra (Foot Injury), D. Blind (Injury), R. Bounida (Injury), M. Carrizo (Inactive). Willem II: A. Culum (Foot Injury), T. Didillon Hodl (Hamstring Injury), A. Lachkar (Groin Injury), J. Schuurman (Knock). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Eredivisie This Week
See all Eredivisie fixtures →All indicators – expected goals, model win odds, and an unblemished recent head‑to‑head – converge on a single conclusion for the result market.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
