Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş: Alanyaspor Draw No Bet
Alanyaspor host Beşiktaş in a Süper Lig clash where both sides sit on identical expected‑goals of 1.35. The model sees an evenly matched result but gives a slight edge to Alanyaspor when the draw is excluded.
Both clubs enter the fixture with a mixed recent record – Alanyaspor have slipped to a loss‑draw‑win‑loss‑draw sequence, while Beşiktaş sit on a solitary 1‑0 home win. The balance of form and identical xG suggests a tight encounter, making the draw a plausible outcome that will be stripped out for the DNB market.
Lars's Verdict
With the draw probability at 25.8% and Alanyaspor’s win chance at 37.1%, the DNB market pushes Alanyaspor’s effective chance above 50%, justifying the selection.
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With Alanyaspor averaging 1.35 expected goals and Beşiktaş averaging 1.35, the model gives a 54.9% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 45.1% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.7 (Alanyaspor 1.35 + Beşiktaş 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 50.6% chance against 49.4% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Alanyaspor at 37.1%, the draw at 25.8%, and Beşiktaş at 37.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 12.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor’s five‑game run includes a 2‑3 loss to Samsunspor (H), a 0‑0 draw at Antalyaspor (A), a 3‑1 home win over Kayserispor, a 1‑2 away loss to Fatih Karagümrük, and a 1‑1 away draw with Gaziantep FK. The mix of a convincing win and two defeats shows they can score but also leak goals, reinforcing the notion that a clean sheet is unlikely – a factor that supports the DNB choice by keeping the match open.
Beşiktaş
Beşiktaş’s recent form is limited to a single 1‑0 home victory over Eyüpspor, demonstrating defensive solidity but limited attacking output. That narrow win, combined with the lack of recent draws, hints that Beşiktaş may struggle to break down Alanyaspor’s defense, again favouring the DNB angle for the hosts.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings, Beşiktaş has recorded a 3‑0 win, a 2‑2 draw, a 2‑0 loss, a 1‑1 draw, and a 1‑1 draw, indicating that both sides have produced clean sheets and high‑scoring games, which aligns with the tight probabilities of the model.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 23 Apr 2026 | Beşiktaş 3-0 Alanyaspor | Türkiye Kupası |
| 8 Feb 2026 | Beşiktaş 2-2 Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 31 Aug 2025 | Alanyaspor 2-0 Beşiktaş | Süper Lig |
| 18 May 2025 | Alanyaspor 1-1 Beşiktaş | Süper Lig |
| 21 Dec 2024 | Beşiktaş 1-1 Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
Team News (Pregame)
Alanyaspor: No notable injury concerns on record.
Beşiktaş: E. Ricardo (Off the roster)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Alanyaspor won 1-0. Our pre-match pick was Alanyaspor Draw No Bet.
What was the final score of Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Alanyaspor 1-0 Beşiktaş (full time).
When was Alanyaspor vs Beşiktaş?
Alanyaspor played Beşiktaş on Sun 23 Aug · 19:30 BST in the Süper Lig at Alanya Oba Stadium.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →Removing the draw from the equation lifts Alanyaspor’s win share well above the 50% mark, making Alanyaspor a solid Draw‑No‑Bet choice.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
