Alanyaspor vs Göztepe: Göztepe to win
Alanyaspor host Göztepe in a game where the visitors’ attacking edge is stark – 2.5 expected goals versus the hosts’ 1.0. The model rates Göztepe’s win probability at nearly 70%, the clearest edge of the three markets.
Both sides come in on contrasting runs: Alanyaspor’s recent form of W‑L‑D‑W‑L shows inconsistency, while Göztepe have slipped to L‑D‑L‑L over their last five fixtures. The fixture pits a side that concedes nothing at home against a visitor that scores heavily on the road, setting up a clear tactical clash.
Lars's Verdict
The model assigns Göztepe a 69.9% chance of victory, reflecting their superior away expected goals and Alanyaspor’s modest scoring at home.
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With Alanyaspor averaging 1.0 expected goals and Göztepe averaging 2.5, the model gives a 58.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 42.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.5 (Alanyaspor 1.0 + Göztepe 2.5) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 67.8% chance against 32.2% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Alanyaspor at 13.1%, the draw at 16.8%, and Göztepe at 69.9% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-2 at 9.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Alanyaspor
Alanyaspor’s last five league results read W‑L‑D‑W‑L, including a 3‑1 home win over Kayserispor and a 1‑0 home victory against Beşiktaş. Those two wins show they can exploit weaker opponents, but the recent 1‑2 away loss to Eyüpspor highlights defensive frailties that Göztepe can target, supporting a pick for the away side’s win.
Göztepe
Göztepe’s form of L‑D‑L‑L features a 3‑3 away draw with Samsunspor and a narrow 2‑3 defeat at Galatasaray. The 3‑3 draw demonstrates they can score multiple goals even when conceding, while the loss to Galatasaray shows they keep attacking intent despite a leaky defence, underpinning the expectation of a Göztepe win.
Head-to-Head
In the five most recent meetings, Göztepe have recorded two draws and three losses, the latest being a 2‑2 draw in March 2026. The head‑to‑head trend of Alanyaspor holding the upper hand aligns with the model’s confidence in a Göztepe win due to their superior away scoring.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | Göztepe 2-2 Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 19 Oct 2025 | Alanyaspor 1-0 Göztepe | Süper Lig |
| 2 Feb 2025 | Göztepe 0-1 Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 23 Aug 2024 | Alanyaspor 1-1 Göztepe | Süper Lig |
| 19 Mar 2022 | Göztepe 0-2 Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
Team News (Pregame)
Alanyaspor: No notable injury concerns on record.
Göztepe: Allan Godoi (Injury), A. Antunes (Inactive), F. Bayir (Inactive), I. Sabra (Ankle Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Alanyaspor vs Göztepe?
Alanyaspor and Göztepe drew 2-2. Our pre-match pick was Göztepe to win.
What was the final score of Alanyaspor vs Göztepe?
Alanyaspor 2-2 Göztepe (full time).
When was Alanyaspor vs Göztepe?
Alanyaspor played Göztepe on Sat 12 Sep · 18:00 BST in the Süper Lig at Alanya Oba Stadium.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →Given the expected‑goal gap and Göztepe’s proven ability to find the net on the road, the model’s win probability for the visitors stands out as the most decisive indicator.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
