Amed vs Başakşehir: Amed to win
Amed's 2.5 expected goals versus Başakşehir's 1.0 make the home side a clear favorite. The model gives Amed a 69.9% chance of victory.
Both clubs enter the match with contrasting recent form – Amed have bounced back from a loss with two wins, while Başakşehir have struggled to find consistency in their last five outings.
Lars's Verdict
The model rates Amed's chance of victory at 69.9%, reflecting the superior expected goals and home form.
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With Amed averaging 2.5 expected goals and Başakşehir averaging 1.0, the model gives a 58.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 42.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.5 (Amed 2.5 + Başakşehir 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 67.8% chance against 32.2% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Amed at 69.9%, the draw at 16.8%, and Başakşehir at 13.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-0 at 9.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Amed
Amed's recent five-game stretch reads WLWD, highlighted by a 3-0 home win over Erzurumspor FK and a 2-1 home victory against Trabzonspor. Those wins, especially the clean sheets, reinforce the team's ability to dominate at home and support a win prediction.
Başakşehir
Başakşehir's five-game run of WLDL includes a 1-1 home draw with Kasımpaşa and a 2-3 home loss to Galatasaray. The mix of draws and defeats, particularly conceding three at home, signals vulnerability that aligns with the low win probability in the model.
Head-to-Head
The last two meetings ended 2-2 draws, showing that both sides can score, but the even scorelines contrast with Amed's current statistical advantage, favoring a home win this time.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 28 Jan 2016 | Başakşehir 2-2 Amed | Türkiye Kupası |
| 23 Dec 2015 | Amed 2-2 Başakşehir | Türkiye Kupası |
Team News (Pregame)
Amed: Y. Sor (Injury), M. Yildirim (Inactive)
Başakşehir: E. Visca (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Amed vs Başakşehir?
Amed won 5-0. Our pre-match pick was Amed to win.
What was the final score of Amed vs Başakşehir?
Amed 5-0 Başakşehir (full time).
When was Amed vs Başakşehir?
Amed played Başakşehir on Sun 13 Sep · 18:00 BST in the Süper Lig at Diyarbakir Stadium.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →Those statistical differentials translate into a decisive edge for the hosts, making a win the most logical outcome.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
