Amed vs Başakşehir: Amed to win
Amed's 2.5 expected goals versus Başakşehir's 1.0 make the home side a clear favorite. The model gives Amed a 69.9% chance of victory.
Both clubs enter the match with contrasting recent form – Amed have bounced back from a loss with two wins, while Başakşehir have struggled to find consistency in their last five outings.
Lars's Verdict
The model rates Amed's chance of victory at 69.9%, reflecting the superior expected goals and home form.
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With Amed averaging 2.5 expected goals and Başakşehir averaging 1.0, the model gives a 58.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 42.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 3.5 (Amed 2.5 + Başakşehir 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 67.8% chance against 32.2% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Amed at 69.9%, the draw at 16.8%, and Başakşehir at 13.1% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-0 at 9.4% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Amed
Amed's recent five-game stretch reads WLWD, highlighted by a 3-0 home win over Erzurumspor FK and a 2-1 home victory against Trabzonspor. Those wins, especially the clean sheets, reinforce the team's ability to dominate at home and support a win prediction.
Başakşehir
Başakşehir's five-game run of WLDL includes a 1-1 home draw with Kasımpaşa and a 2-3 home loss to Galatasaray. The mix of draws and defeats, particularly conceding three at home, signals vulnerability that aligns with the low win probability in the model.
Head-to-Head
The last two meetings ended 2-2 draws, showing that both sides can score, but the even scorelines contrast with Amed's current statistical advantage, favoring a home win this time.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 28 Jan 2016 | Başakşehir 2-2 Amed | Türkiye Kupası |
| 23 Dec 2015 | Amed 2-2 Başakşehir | Türkiye Kupası |
Team News
Amed: Y. Sor (Injury), M. Yildirim (Inactive)
Başakşehir: E. Visca (Inactive)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who is predicted to win Amed vs Başakşehir?
Amed to win. The model rates Amed's chance of victory at 69.9%, reflecting the superior expected goals and home form.
What does the model give Amed vs Başakşehir?
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, gives Amed a 69.9% chance, the draw 16.8%, and Başakşehir 13.1% to win.
When is Amed vs Başakşehir?
Amed play Başakşehir on Sun 13 Sep · 18:00 BST in the Süper Lig at Diyarbakir Stadium.
Are there any injury concerns for Amed vs Başakşehir?
Amed: Y. Sor (Injury), M. Yildirim (Inactive). Başakşehir: E. Visca (Inactive). Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →Those statistical differentials translate into a decisive edge for the hosts, making a win the most logical outcome.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
