Amed vs Trabzonspor: Amed to win
Amed's expected 3.0 goals versus Trabzonspor's 1.0 makes a 77.1% win probability the clearest edge in this Süper Lig clash.
Both sides come into the fixture with contrasting recent form – Amed has already shown its scoring punch, while Trabzonspor has struggled to find consistency on the road.
Lars's Verdict
The model's 77.1% win probability for Amed, driven by their superior expected goals, makes this the most convincing result.
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With Amed averaging 3.0 expected goals and Trabzonspor averaging 1.0, the model gives a 59.8% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 40.2% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 4.0 (Amed 3.0 + Trabzonspor 1.0) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 75.8% chance against 24.2% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Amed at 77.1%, the draw at 13.1%, and Trabzonspor at 9.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-0 at 8.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Amed
Amed's recent form includes a 3‑0 home win over Erzurumspor FK and a 0‑2 away loss to Kocaelispor. The big home win highlights their goal‑scoring capacity, while the narrow defeat shows they can be vulnerable when away, underscoring why the model rates them strongly at home.
Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor's last five games feature a 0‑3 home loss to Gençlerbirliği, a 1‑1 away draw with Kasımpaşa, and a 2‑1 home win over Başakşehir. The heavy defeat and modest draw illustrate inconsistent away form, supporting a low win probability for the visitors.
Team News (Pregame)
Amed: No notable injury concerns on record.
Trabzonspor: A. Batagov (Knee Injury), T. Jabol-Folcarelli (Knee Injury), O. Yokuslu (Lacking Match Fitness), E. Muci (Hamstring Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won Amed vs Trabzonspor?
Amed won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was Amed to win.
What was the final score of Amed vs Trabzonspor?
Amed 2-1 Trabzonspor (full time).
When was Amed vs Trabzonspor?
Amed played Trabzonspor on Mon 31 Aug · 19:30 BST in the Süper Lig at Diyarbakir Stadium.
More Süper Lig This Week
See all Süper Lig fixtures →With the model assigning a 77.1% win chance to the hosts and a modest 9.4% for Trabzonspor, the safest read points to a home victory.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
