AS Roma vs Atalanta: AS Roma to win
AS Roma's season xG sits at 4.0 while Atalanta trails at 1.35, and the model gives Roma an 80.7% chance of victory. The goal‑rich outlook is underscored by an 88.1% probability of over 2.5 goals.
Both sides enter the clash after contrasting runs – Roma have steamrolled their last five league games, whereas Atalanta have mixed results of one loss and one draw in the same span. The form gap sets the tone for a likely one‑sided encounter.
Robbo's Verdict
With an 80.7% win probability and a dominant xG edge, Roma are heavily favoured to secure all three points.
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With AS Roma averaging 4.0 expected goals and Atalanta averaging 1.35, the model gives a 71.1% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 28.9% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 5.3 (AS Roma 4.0 + Atalanta 1.35) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 88.1% chance against 11.9% for Under.
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Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has AS Roma at 80.7%, the draw at 9.5%, and Atalanta at 7.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 3-1 at 6.8% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
AS Roma
Roma have won each of their last five league matches, highlighted by a 4-0 home thrashing of Fiorentina and a 3-2 away victory over Parma. Those clean sheets and prolific scores demonstrate a side that both scores and concedes rarely, reinforcing the expectation of a win in this fixture.
Atalanta
Atalanta’s recent form reads W‑L‑D‑W, including a 3-2 away win at AC Milan and a 2-1 home victory over Sassuolo, but also a 0-1 home loss to Bologna. The inconsistency and lack of away goals suggest they will struggle to match Roma’s firepower.
Head-to-Head
In the last five meetings the teams have combined for 11 goals, with Roma’s most recent 1-1 draw in April 2026 being the only game where both sides hit the net. The head‑to‑head trend of Roma scoring fewer goals than their season average supports the pick of a Roma win.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 18 Apr 2026 | AS Roma 1-1 Atalanta | Serie A |
| 3 Jan 2026 | Atalanta 1-0 AS Roma | Serie A |
| 12 May 2025 | Atalanta 2-1 AS Roma | Serie A |
| 2 Dec 2024 | AS Roma 0-2 Atalanta | Serie A |
| 12 May 2024 | Atalanta 2-1 AS Roma | Serie A |
Team News (Pregame)
AS Roma: M. Bah (Knee Injury), L. Pellegrini (Thigh Injury), D. Rensch (Muscle Injury)
Atalanta: I. Hien (Muscle Injury), K. Sulemana (Knee Injury), H. Ahanor (Muscle Injury), T. Kristensen (Ankle Injury)
Injury records reflect the team news on file heading into this match.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who won AS Roma vs Atalanta?
AS Roma won 2-1. Our pre-match pick was AS Roma to win.
What was the final score of AS Roma vs Atalanta?
AS Roma 2-1 Atalanta (full time).
When was AS Roma vs Atalanta?
AS Roma played Atalanta on Sat 5 Sep · 19:45 BST in the Serie A at Stadio Olimpico.
More Serie A This Week
See all Serie A fixtures →All indicators point to Roma dominating the game and finding the net multiple times, making a straight win the most logical selection.
Predictions and model probabilities are for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice — always do your own research. BeGambleAware.org
